Prospects for kilonova signals in the gravitational-wave era

Mochkovitch, R.; Daigne, F.; Duque, Raphaël; Zitouni, Hannachi

doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202140689

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Factoring in the lower local NSNS merger rate density assumed in this work, with respect to studies that used the O2 estimate (which was higher by a factor of around three), our joint GW+EM detection rate predictions are in general agreement with most of these previous works. In particular, both Zhu et al (2021) and Mochkovitch et al (2021) find a similarly large fraction 60-80% of KNae detectable with similar thresholds as ours; factoring in the different fraction of jet-launching events (52% in this work, compared to 100% in the others), our estimate, that up to 10% of the afterglows will be detectable in radio, is in agreement with the 20% estimated by Duque et al (2019) and Saleem et al (2018). The prediction that only few percent of the NSNS events detectable in O4 through GW emission will have a detectable short GRB is in line (again factoring in our 52% fraction of jet-launching systems) with, e.g., Belgacem et al (2019), Howell et al (2019) and Yu et al (2021), while Saleem (2020) and Mogushi et al (2019) find somewhat higher fractions (but note that the estimate for sub-threshold GW detections triggered by GRB detec-tions from Saleem 2020 is in good agreement with ours).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…As a final remark, our estimates make GRB170817A an extremely lucky event (in line with, e.g., Mochkovitch et al 2021, but see also Perna et al 2021), which is not going to repeat soon. Given the excellent agreement of our model predictions with the short GRB cumulative peak flux distribution observed by Fermi/GBM and Swift/BAT (see Figure 11 in the Appendix), we consider this a robust statement.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…In the last years, several works predicting the joint GW+EM detection rates during O4 have been published or circulated as pre-prints, each focusing on a single or at most two EM counterparts (Zhu et al 2021;Mochkovitch et al 2021;Saleem et al 2018;Duque et al 2019;Saleem 2020;Belgacem et al 2019;Yu et al 2021;Mogushi et al 2019;Howell et al 2019;Abbott et al 2021e). Factoring in the lower local NSNS merger rate density assumed in this work, with respect to studies that used the O2 estimate (which was higher by a factor of around three), our joint GW+EM detection rate predictions are in general agreement with most of these previous works.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers in the O4 run

Colombo,

Salafia,

Gabrielli

et al. 2022

Preprint

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We present realistic expectations for the number and properties of neutron star binary mergers to be detected as multi-messenger sources during the upcoming fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational wave (GW) detectors, with the aim of providing guidance for the optimization of observing strategies. Our predictions are based on a population synthesis model which includes the GW signal-to-noise ratio, the kilonova (KN) optical and near-infrared light curves, the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission peak photon flux, and the afterglow light curves in radio, optical and X-rays. Within our assumptions, the rate of GW events to be confidently detected during O4 is 7.7 +11.9 −5.7 yr −1 , 78% of which will produce a KN, and a lower 52% will also produce a relativistic jet. The typical depth of current optical electromagnetic search and follow up strategies is still sufficient to detect most of the KNae in O4, but only for the first night or two. The prospects for detecting relativistic jet emission are not promising. While closer events (within z 0.02) will likely still have a detectable cocoon shock breakout, most events will have their GRB emission (both prompt and afterglow) missed unless seen under a small viewing angle. This reduces the fraction of events with detectable jets to 2% (prompt emission, serendipitous) and 10% (afterglow, deep radio monitoring), corresponding to detection rates of 0.17 +0.26 −0.13 and 0.78 +1.21 −0.58 yr −1 , respectively. When considering a GW sub-threshold search triggered by a GRB detection, our predicted rate of joint GW+GRB prompt emission detections increases up to a more promising 0.75 +1.16 −0.55 yr −1 .

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers in the O4 run

Colombo,

Salafia,

Gabrielli

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…The merger rates determine prospects for future Earth-based and space-borne gravitational-wave detectors, and will impact detector design (Amaro-Seoane et al 2017;Adhikari et al 2019;Reitze et al 2019). Merger rates feed into constraints or predictions on other observables, ranging from kilonovae associated with binary NS mergers (e.g., Kasliwal et al 2020;Mochkovitch et al 2021) to gravitational-wave stochastic backgrounds (Abbott et al 2016a) to, possibly, fast radio bursts (e.g., Zhang 2020). This, then, is an opportune time for a review of the current state of the observations and predictions of compact object merger rates-and, given the expectation of continuing rapid development in this field, it particularly calls for a Living Review.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rates of compact object coalescences

2022

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Gravitational-wave detections are enabling measurements of the rate of coalescences of binaries composed of two compact objects—neutron stars and/or black holes. The coalescence rate of binaries containing neutron stars is further constrained by electromagnetic observations, including Galactic radio binary pulsars and short gamma-ray bursts. Meanwhile, increasingly sophisticated models of compact objects merging through a variety of evolutionary channels produce a range of theoretically predicted rates. Rapid improvements in instrument sensitivity, along with plans for new and improved surveys, make this an opportune time to summarise the existing observational and theoretical knowledge of compact-binary coalescence rates.

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“…[17][18][19]. Unfortunately however, such joint observations are predicted to be rare in future science runs [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future constraints on cosmology and modified gravitational wave friction from binary black holes

Leyde,

Mastrogiovanni,

Steer

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Gravitational wave (GW) standard sirens are well-established probes with which one can measure cosmological parameters, and are complementary to other probes like the cosmic microwave background (CMB) or supernovae standard candles. Here we focus on dark GW sirens, specifically binary black holes (BBHs) for which there is only GW data. Our approach relies on the assumption of a source-frame mass model for the BBH distribution, and we consider four models that are representative of the BBH population observed so far. In addition to inferring cosmological and mass model parameters, we use dark sirens to test modified gravity theories. These theories often predict different GW propagation equations on cosmological scales, leading to a different GW luminosity distance which in some cases can be parametrized by variables Ξ 0 and n. General relativity (GR) corresponds to Ξ 0 = 1. We perform a joint estimate of the population parameters governing mass, redshift, the variables characterizing the cosmology, and the modified GW luminosity distance. We use data from the third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observation run (O3) and find − for the four mass models and for three signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) cuts of 10, 11, 12 − that GR is consistently the preferred model to describe all observed BBH GW signals to date. Furthermore, all modified gravity parameters have posteriors that are compatible with the values predicted by GR at the 90% confidence interval (CI). We then focus on future observation runs O4 and O5, and for simplicity consider one specific mass model. We show that there are strong correlations between cosmological, astrophysical and modified gravity parameters. If GR is the correct theory of gravity, and assuming narrow priors on the cosmological parameters, we recover the modified gravity parameter Ξ 0 = 1.47 +0.92 −0.57 with O4, and Ξ 0 = 1.08 +0.27 −0.16 with O4 and O5. We also consider how wide priors on the cosmological parameters impact our results. If, however, Nature follows a modified gravity model with Ξ 0 = 1.8 and n = 1.91, we exclude GR at the 1.7 σ level with O4 and at the 2.3 σ level with O4 and O5 combined.

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Prospects for kilonova signals in the gravitational-wave era

Cited by 18 publications

References 59 publications

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers in the O4 run

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers in the O4 run

Rates of compact object coalescences

Current and future constraints on cosmology and modified gravitational wave friction from binary black holes

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