Prospects for Human Longevity

Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

“…Saving an elderly life, however, has a smaller impact on life expectancy than saving the life of a newborn, which is why life expectancy is becoming less sensitive to changes in death rates (Olshansky, Carnes & Cassel 1990). Thus, the increases in life expectancy may only continue at the present pace if death rates at older ages can be reduced much faster than in the past (Olshansky, Carnes & Désesquelles 2001).…”

“…The first is that future increases in life expectancy are more difficult to achieve than in the past. As already mentioned in Section 1, the rapid increase in life expectancy during the first half of the 20 th century was mainly these ages are very low and any further mortality decline will only yield small increases in life expectancy in the future (Olshansky, Carnes & Désesquelles 2001). In 1990, Olshansky and colleagues calculated that eliminating all mortality before age 50 would lead to an increase in life expectancy of only 3.5 years (Olshansky, Carnes & Cassel 1990).…”

“…On the basis of these considerations, Olshansky and colleagues conclude that life expectancy for both sexes combined will in accordance unlikely exceed age 85 (see also Section 3.1) (CouzinFrankel 2011). They argue that unless the aging process itself can be modified, life (Olshansky, Carnes & Désesquelles 2001, p. 1492.…”

Aging: The Reality: "Anti-Aging" Is an Oxymoron

“…Only a 6-year increase in life expectation occurred in the following 27 years (7,8). For an increase of even 10 more years in human life expectation to occur in the United States in the next 50 years, mortality rates will have to decline to a level that has never before been achieved (9).…”

The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts

“…This approach has inevitably come in for criticism because it ignores factors relating to lifestyle and the environment that might influence future mortality trends. On the other hand, another group of demographers (e.g., Olshansky et al [5][6][7], Mizuno et al [8], and Loladze [9]) have suggested that future life expectancy might level off or even decline due to factors such as obesity and decreased food-derived health benefits associated with higher levels of atmospheric CO 2 . But even demographers (e.g., de Grey [10]) critical of the extrapolative forecasting approach adopted by Vaupel still accept the possibility that scientific advances and the socio-political responses to them might lead to substantial increases in life expectancy over the next century.…”