Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Mortality in Low-Mortality Countries AbstractThis paper provides an overview of past and expected future trends in life expectancy in experienced strong decreases in infant mortality, the future mortality trends will be driven mainly by mortality among the old and oldest-old. The paper gathers empirical background data and theoretical considerations about past and likely future determinants of mortality including smoking, obesity, biomedical progress, environmental changes and socioeconomic conditions. Based on this knowledge an internet expert survey and a metaexperts meeting were carried out to formulate expert-based assumptions for future trends in s indicate that that the positive influences on human mortality and life expectancy will likely outweigh the negative risk factors and lead to further increases of life expectancy. Moreover, the paper concludes that the differences between countries are likely to narrow further in the future.

Education and Health: Redrawing the Preston Curve

“…Where such matching studies have been conducted, they all show significant mortality differentials by level of education (Caselli et al. ). But such studies often lack the income information for comparative analysis.…”

“…In virtually all industrialized countries for which data are available, the education differentials in adult mortality increased over time despite improving health care coverage in most countries (Caselli et al. ). One explanation for this pattern lies in the increasing importance of lifestyle‐related factors for which education seems to be more important than the health care system.…”

“…The empirical evidence is equally compelling for the effect of education on adult mortality. In virtually all countries for which data exist, better-educated people have higher life expectancies (Caselli et al 2014). The differences vary in extent among countries and are generally greater for men than for women.…”

“…Among industrialized countries, differences tend to be lowest in Southern European countries and are highest in Eastern Europe. In Russia, the difference between the highest and lowest education groups among adult men is up to 12 years (Caselli et al 2014). It has also been shown that the overall decline in life expectancy that Russian men experienced over the 1990s was driven by a strong decline among the lower education groups whereas the highest groups continued to enjoy moderate increases (Shkolnikov et al 2006).…”

How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections

“…Changing patterns of partnerships and gender differences For each of these 17 major forces up to 10 specific arguments were listed, with responding experts invited to add additional self-defined arguments. These specific arguments are listed and discussed in Basten et al (2013), Fuchs and Goujon (2013), Caselli et al (2013), Garbero and Pamuk (2013), and Sander et al (2013) dealing with fertility, mortality, and migration. 2 For each of the arguments the experts were asked to judge the degree of correctness based on the scientific evidence.…”