Prospects for biological carbon sinks in greenhouse gas emissions trading systems.

Reilly, John M.; Felzer, B. S.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Tian, H.; Asadoorian, Malcolm O.

doi:10.1079/9781845931896.0115

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Thus, we may have overestimated carbon sequestration in cropland soils. Conversely, we also assume that all of our croplands are rain-fed so that we do not capture the potential effects of any irrigation on carbon dynamics in arid areas which may have increased the estimated carbon sink [84,90].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Kicklighter

Cai

Zhuang

et al. 2014

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Kicklighter

Cai

Zhuang

et al. 2014

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The TEM is a process-based ecosystem model that uses spatially referenced information on climate, elevation, soils, vegetation, and water availability to estimate monthly vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes (see the Supporting Information for more details). TEM has been used to examine patterns of land carbon dynamics across the globe including how they are influenced concurrently by multiple factors such as CO 2 fertilization, climate change and variability, land-use change, and ozone pollution. ,− …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Land To Mitigate Climate Change: Hitting the Target, Recognizing the Trade-offs

Reilly

Melillo

Cai

et al. 2012

Environ. Sci. Technol.

114

116

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Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.

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Soil carbon sequestration

2006

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Prospects for biological carbon sinks in greenhouse gas emissions trading systems.

Cited by 3 publications

References 13 publications

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Using Land To Mitigate Climate Change: Hitting the Target, Recognizing the Trade-offs

Soil carbon sequestration

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