Proposing a new framework for analyzing the severity of meteorological drought

Niaz, Rizwan; Almazah, Mohammed M. A.; Al-Rezami, A. Y.; Ali, Zulfiqar; Hussain, Ijaz; Omer, Talha

doi:10.1080/10106049.2023.2197512

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 88 publications

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“…Droughts are complex events (Shiau and Modarres 2009), the least understood disasters (Kao and Govindaraju 2010), recurrent events with more harmful effects (Ullah et al 2023), slow evolution process that takes place with long duration and common impact (Ahmadi and Moradkhani 2019;Sun et al 2023), most serious and extensive natural catastrophe (Zhou et al 2023). Besides its properties drought has been classified into four groups meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic (Kheyruri et al 2023;Deger et al 2023;Yang et al 2023;Yuce et al 2023;Niaz et al 2023). Meteorological droughts describe precipitation deficits that are significantly below average levels (Akturk et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Robleh,

Yuce,

Esit

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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Drought, a major phenomenon impacting water resources, viability, sustainability, and the economy, has been one of the most important hydrological concerns. In the literature, it has been classified into four groups that are meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Meteorological drought expresses the precipitation deficits when they are significantly below those recorded normal times. In this study, using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and mean monthly precipitation records of 17 stations which have been obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology of Türkiye, a drought monitoring analysis has been conducted for Kızılırmak Basin, which is the second largest water basin of the country and water source of many provinces allowing for the time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months considering the cases of “dry” (SPI ≤ − 1.5) and “wet” (SPI ≥ 1.5). To detect the possible trends in two categories of Severe and Extreme Drought, SED (SPI ≤ − 1.5), and Severe and Extreme Wet, SEW (SPI ≥ 1.5) of all time scales, a developed form of innovative trend analysis (ITA) is performed by adding two vertical lines. In addition, a traditional the Mann–Kendall test is applied to the SPI series. The findings indicate that dry occurrences tend to outnumber wet occurrences across various time scales. Analysis reveals that a significant majority of results across all time scales exhibit a consistent trend (89%), with a notable increase in the SEW category (62.74%) and a decrease in the SED category (60.78%). Mann–Kendall analysis demonstrates that 67% of the observed trends show a decrease, while 33% show an increase across all time scales.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Robleh,

Yuce,

Esit

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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A generalized framework for quantifying and monitoring the severity of meteorological drought

Ellahi

Niaz

Almazah

et al. 2023

Geocarto International

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A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The current study aimed to examine the interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought. For this purpose, a new comprehensive framework is proposed. The framework consists of two major stages. In the first stage of the framework, the K-means method is utilized to identify homogeneous clusters. Besides, the Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) is applied to select more important stations from the varying clusters. In the second stage, the standardized precipitation index at a three-time scale (SPI-3), the conditional fixed effect binary logistic regression model (CFEBLRM), and the random effect binary logistic regression model (REBLRM) are utilized. The significance of CFEBLRM and REBLRM is measured by log-likelihood values, log-likelihood ratio chi-square test (LRCST), Wald chi-square tests (WCT), and p values. The Hausman test (HT) is applied to identify endogeneity and suggests the appropriate model in CFEBLRM and REBLRM. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the drought persists in the summer to autumn and autumn to winter seasons between 90 and 99 percent. The odds ratio of CFEBLRM for the summer-autumn season indicates that the increment in precipitation will decrease the drought persistence in the autumn season. The result of the current study facilitates the decision-makers to understand the effects of meteorological drought occurrences better and improve strategies for mitigating drought effects and managing seasonal crops in the Punjab province in Pakistan.

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Proposing a new framework for analyzing the severity of meteorological drought

Cited by 3 publications

References 88 publications

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

A generalized framework for quantifying and monitoring the severity of meteorological drought

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

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