Prominent mode of summer surface air temperature variability and associated circulation anomalies over the Arabian Peninsula

Attada, Raju; Yadav, Ramesh Kumar; Kunchala, Ravi Kumar; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Knio, Omar M.

doi:10.1002/asl.860

Cited by 23 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(49 reference statements)

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“…This feature is in line with the results from CMIP3 and CMIP5, as reported in Almazroui et al (2016Almazroui et al ( , 2017b. Note that the summer temperature of the Peninsula is highly correlated with the quasi-stationary mid-latitude Eurasian Rossby wave train pattern and the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (Attada et al 2018b;Ehsan et al 2020;Rashid et al 2020).…”

Section: Changes In Temperature For the Near And Far Futuressupporting

confidence: 90%

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

et al. 2020

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This paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99% confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm decade–1 (significant at the 90% confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) %, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) %, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region.

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Section: Changes In Temperature For the Near And Far Futuressupporting

confidence: 90%

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

et al. 2020

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“…All rights reserved. significantly in June, following which the RH gradually decreases as the summer progresses; this decrease in RH occurs in conjunction with moisture transport from the Indian summer monsoon (Viswanadhapalli et al, 2017;Attada et al, 2018b). Good agreement between the ERA and the regional AP reanalyses confirms that the latter accurately reproduces the large-scale patterns of temperature and RH over the KSA.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 66%

Analysis of Outdoor Thermal Discomfort Over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

et al. 2021

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“…27 Several studies have examined the dominant modes of surface air temperature variability over different regions of Eurasia during different seasons, 28,29 including some studies specifically focusing on the Middle East-North Africa region. [30][31][32][33][34] The summertime climate variations of the ME were linked in these studies to various large-scale and regional processes, such as El Nino−Southern Oscillation, Indo−Pacific warm pool, tropical North and South Atlantic, Western Hemisphere warm pool, the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, as well as the South Asian summer monsoon through the well-known monsoon-desert mechanism. 35 However, the spatial and temporal structures of the dominant mode of boreal summer ME-SAT, and particularly the main factors responsible for summer SAT anomalies related to the leading variability mode are less understood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

et al. 2020

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Middle East surface air temperature (ME-SAT), during boreal summer (June to August: JJA), shows robust multidecadal variations for the period 1948−2016. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, as well as coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations, we linked the observed summer ME-SAT variability to the multidecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean (AMV). This Atlantic−ME connection during summer involves ocean-atmosphere interactions through multiple ocean basins, with an influence from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The downstream response to Atlantic SST is a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream that impacts summer ME-SAT variability through a wave-like pattern in the upper tropospheric levels. The Atlantic SST response is further characterized by positive geopotential height anomalies in the upper levels over the Eurasian region and a dipole-like pressure distribution over the ME in lower levels. For positive Atlantic SST anomalies this pressure gradient initiates anomalous low-level southerly flow, which transports moisture from the neighboring water bodies toward the extremely hot and dry ME landmass. The increase in atmospheric moisture reduces the longwave radiation damping of the SAT anomaly, increasing further ME-SAT. A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments skillfully reproduces the North Atlantic-ME teleconnection. Our findings reveal that in observations and models the Atlantic Ocean acts as a critical pacemaker for summer ME-SAT multidecadal variability and that a positive AMV can lead to enhanced summer warming over the Middle East.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2020) 3:5 ; https://doi.

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Prominent mode of summer surface air temperature variability and associated circulation anomalies over the Arabian Peninsula

Cited by 23 publications

References 33 publications

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

Analysis of Outdoor Thermal Discomfort Over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

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