Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Ehsan, Muhammad Fahad; Nicolì, Dario; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Tippett, Michael K.; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Kang, In‐Sik

doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1

Cited by 28 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…This feature is in line with the results from CMIP3 and CMIP5, as reported in Almazroui et al (2016Almazroui et al ( , 2017b. Note that the summer temperature of the Peninsula is highly correlated with the quasi-stationary mid-latitude Eurasian Rossby wave train pattern and the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (Attada et al 2018b;Ehsan et al 2020;Rashid et al 2020).…”

Section: Changes In Temperature For the Near And Far Futuressupporting

confidence: 90%

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

et al. 2020

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This paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99% confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm decade–1 (significant at the 90% confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) %, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) %, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region.

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Section: Changes In Temperature For the Near And Far Futuressupporting

confidence: 90%

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

et al. 2020

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“…A significant warming signal is also found over South-eastern Europe, the Mediterranean basin and a wide region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula and Eastern Africa, consistent with previous findings [25][26][27][28] . Over the Middle East, temperature increase is attributable to the observed AMV-induced surface pressure gradient which locally transports warm moist air over the dry, hot region 29 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Nicolì

Bellucci

Iovino

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Impact studies of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on the climate system are severely limited by the lack of sufficiently long observational records. Relying on a model-based approach is therefore mandatory to overcome this limitation. Here, a novel experimental setup, designed in the framework of the CMIP6-endorsed Decadal Climate Prediction Project, is applied to the CMCC climate model to analyse the remote climate impact of the AMV on the Northern Eurasian continent. Model results show that, during Boreal summer, an enhanced warming associated to a positive phase of the AMV, induces a hemispheric-scale wave-train response in the atmospheric circulation, affecting vast portions of Northern Eurasia. The overall AMV-induced response consists in an upper-tropospheric anomalous flows leading to a rainfall increase over Scandinavia and Siberia and to an intensified river runoff by the major Siberian rivers. A strengthening of Eurasian shelves' stratification, broadly consistent with the anomalous river discharge, is found in the proximity of the river mouths during positive-AMV years. Considering that Siberian rivers (Ob', Yenisei and Lena) account for almost half of the Arctic freshwater input provided by terrestrial sources, the implications of these findings for decadal variability and predictability of the Arctic environment are also discussed. The variability of Northern Eurasian climate has direct implications for the hydrological cycle of the Arctic 1,2. Almost 10% of the total freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean derives from terrestrial sources, influencing seaice formation and sea surface salinity at different timescales 3,4. High-latitude precipitation is one of the drivers of the Arctic rivers discharge, even if the direct link between rainfall and river streamflow is still unclear 5,6 , due to the concurrence of several additional factors which may have implications for the freshwater inflow: snowmelt, permafrost degradation, reservoir and dam regulation, fire frequency and human activities 7. However, understanding the origins of the regional scale, decadal variability of precipitation remains a challenging issue, which may disclose some degree of predictability, potentially improving the quality of climate predictions. Several studies have focused on the winter period, invoking a role for the Siberian High, Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean 8-12. Berg et al. 13 claim that, at daily timescale, increasing surface temperature, the Clausius-Clapeyron law prevails in the modulation of the large-scale precipitation, whereas moisture transport and availability are the keys to explain summer rainfall. Different physical processes require different approaches for winter and summer analysis, given also the strong climate seasonality of the high-latitude regions 5,14. On the interannual timescale, summer precipitation is still driven by the convergence of large-scale moisture fluxes over eastern Siberia since the ev...

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“…The pattern of rainfall and its associated atmospheric circulation over Saudi Arabia displays strong seasonality, as the influence of both tropical and extra-tropical drivers (and the interactions between them) causes extreme rainfall events at different times through the annual cycle. During the dry season, the Arabian heat low is driven by the South Asian monsoon, causing middle and upper tropospheric subsidence over the East Mediterranean region and the Middle East [29][30][31], resulting in the suppression of rainfall over Saudi Arabia. However, mechanical lifting causes rainfall in the southwestern mountainous region due to the effect of the local topography [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall Trends and Extremes in Saudi Arabia in Recent Decades

Almazroui

2020

Atmosphere

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The observed records of recent decades show increased economic damage associated with flash flooding in different regions of Saudi Arabia. An increase in extreme rainfall events may cause severe repercussions for the socio-economic sectors of the country. The present study investigated the observed rainfall trends and associated extremes over Saudi Arabia for the 42-year period of 1978–2019. It measured the contribution of extreme events to the total rainfall and calculated the changes to mean and extreme rainfall events over five different climate regions of Saudi Arabia. Rainfall indices were constructed by estimating the extreme characteristics associated with daily rainfall frequency and intensity. The analysis reveals that the annual rainfall is decreasing (5.89 mm decade−1, significant at the 90% level) over Saudi Arabia for the entire analysis period, while it increased in the most recent decade. On a monthly scale, the most significant increase (5.44 mm decade−1) is observed in November and the largest decrease (1.20 mm decade−1) in January. The frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing for the majority of stations over Saudi Arabia, while the frequency of weak events is decreasing. More extreme rainfall events are occurring in the northwest, east, and southwest regions of Saudi Arabia. A daily rainfall of ≥ 26 mm is identified as the threshold for an extreme event. It is found that the contribution of extreme events to the total rainfall amount varies from region to region and season to season. The most considerable contribution (up to 56%) is found in the southern region in June. Regionally, significant contribution comes from the coastal region, where extreme events contribute, on average, 47% of the total rainfall each month from October to February, with the largest (53%) in November. For the entire country, extreme rainfall contributes most (52%) in November and least (20%) in July, while contributions from different stations are in the 8–50% range of the total rainfall.

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Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Cited by 28 publications

References 54 publications

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Rainfall Trends and Extremes in Saudi Arabia in Recent Decades

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