Projections of thermal conditions for Poland for winters 2021-2050 in relation to atmospheric circulation

Piotrowski, Piotr; Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna

doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0450

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…8). This is in line with Piotrowski and Jȩdruszkiewicz (2013), who found that this was mainly attributable to an increase in the frequency of cyclonic circulation types. In summer, the strongest warming is likely to occur in the mountainous re- …”

Section: Projected Temperature Changessupporting

confidence: 80%

“…The outcomes of the latter project showed significant upward trend in temperature and uncertain precipitation increases in the median of winter changes, and slight decreases in summer (Osuch et al, 2012). Piotrowski and Jȩdruszkiewicz (2013) assessed the spatial variability in winter temperature over Poland for the near future (2021-2050) based on three RCMs under the SRES A1B emission scenario. More recently, Osuch et al (2016) applied a bias correction method on six simulations from the ENSEMBLES project to assess various drought indices over Poland and pointed out that the correction process altered the magnitude of the trend in corrected modelled precipitation but not its direction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Mezghani

Dobler

Haugen

et al. 2017

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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Abstract. The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections -Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period and two future horizons (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 • C until 2021-2050 and by 2 • C until 2071-2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 • C by 2071-2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 • C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at

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Section: Projected Temperature Changessupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Mezghani

Dobler

Haugen

et al. 2017

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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“…These results are confirmed by an analysis of conditional probabilities of high‐precipitation events under the local atmospheric circulation types distinguished using the method by Piotrowski and Jędruszkiewicz (). In both seasons of the year, warm and cold, the cyclonic types were more favourable than anticyclonic.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…To determine the local atmospheric circulation types favouring extreme precipitation events, a method similar to the Jenkinson and Collison () procedure was applied, which made it possible to set out automatically the direction of air mass advection from the direction of geostrophic wind and the character of atmospheric circulation (cyclonic or anticyclonic) on grounds of wind shear vorticity. Both indices were determined based on the values of geopotential heights at the 850‐hPa level in 32 grid points according to the procedure described by Piotrowski and Jędruszkiewicz (). In this manner, eight cyclonic and eight anticyclonic types were distinguished in 45° wind direction sectors and eight main directions (W, NW, N, NE, E, SE, S and SW).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the air temperature and atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation in Poland

Wibig

Piotrowski

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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There are two aims of this paper: First, the relationship between daily and hourly precipitation extremes and air temperature is investigated for the validity of Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) scaling; second, the impact of the atmospheric circulation and transport of humidity on the extreme precipitation events occurrence in Poland is analysed based on data obtained from 26 stations across Poland in the period 1951–2015. It was shown that daily‐scale extreme rainfall is less sensitive to changes in local atmospheric temperature but the hourly intensities reveal a similar behaviour at all stations showing a robust signal over the entire country. Regarding the impact of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation, three types were distinguished in cool part of the year: one connected with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), second with a low‐pressure zone in the north and high‐pressure in the south of Europe and the northern Atlantic and third with a low over central Europe. Each time high precipitation in Poland was connected with the advection of humid air from the western sectors (SW, W or NW). In the warm part of the year three types were distinguished too, Poland was always in the scope of low‐pressure systems with the advection of warm air from the southern sectors or when the warm air from the south meets the colder air from the north. Similar localizations of low centres have been found in the case of local‐scale atmospheric circulation types during events with extreme precipitation. Both in cool and warm part of the year such events are connected with the increase of water vapour in the air. In cool season the wet and warm air masses inflow to Poland the most often from Atlantic, in the warm season—from Mediterranean and/or Black Seas.

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“…Many researchers, among others Niedźwiedź (1981), Bednorz (2002), Falarz (2007a), or Czarnecka (2012), point to the fact that the occurrence of snow cover largely depends on the current air circulation. According to the research by Piotrowski and Jędruszkiewicz (2013), thermal conditions of winters and snow cover in Poland have been and in the near future will be (2021-2050) closely related to atmospheric circulation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in snow cover occurrence and the atmospheric circulation impact in Poznań (Poland)

Szyga–Pluta

2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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The variability of occurrence of snow cover and the impact of atmospheric circulation on the snow cover occurrence in the period 1966/1967–2019/2020 in Poznań (Poland) have been examined. The implementation of the primary study objective covers the comprehensive analysis of the winter snow and thermal conditions using various indicators. This paper is based on daily data from the years 1966–2020 concerning the winter period. Winters in Poznań are highly variable and differentiated, considering the duration of particular seasons, number of days with snow cover, mean snow cover thickness, winter snowiness coefficient, or winter severity index. Negative trends concerning days with snow cover total snow cover depth winter snowiness coefficient and winter severity index in Poznań prove statistically significant. A higher probability of occurrence of snow cover was determined during cyclonic than anticyclonic circulation. The westerly and northerly types especially favoured the occurrence of days with snow cover. The increase of snow cover was associated with the northerly inflow mainly. Westerly types of circulation caused the decrease of snow cover predominantly.

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Projections of thermal conditions for Poland for winters 2021-2050 in relation to atmospheric circulation

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Impact of the air temperature and atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation in Poland

Changes in snow cover occurrence and the atmospheric circulation impact in Poznań (Poland)

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