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VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, process‐based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using “perfect” reanalysis (and reanalysis‐driven regional climate model (RCM)) predictors to assess the intrinsic performance of the methods for downscaling precipitation and temperatures over a set of 86 stations representative of the main climatic regions in Europe. This study constitutes the largest and most comprehensive to date intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods, covering the three common downscaling approaches (perfect prognosis, model output statistics—including bias correction—and weather generators) with a total of over 50 downscaling methods representative of the most common techniques. Overall, most of the downscaling methods greatly improve (reanalysis or RCM) raw model biases and no approach or technique seems to be superior in general, because there is a large method‐to‐method variability. The main factors most influencing the results are the seasonal calibration of the methods (e.g., using a moving window) and their stochastic nature. The particular predictors used also play an important role in cases where the comparison was possible, both for the validation results and for the strength of the predictor–predictand link, indicating the local variability explained. However, the present study cannot give a conclusive assessment of the skill of the methods to simulate regional future climates, and further experiments will be soon performed in the framework of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative (where VALUE activities have merged and follow on). Finally, research transparency and reproducibility has been a major concern and substantive steps have been taken. In particular, the necessary data to run the experiments are provided at http://www.value-cost.eu/data and data and validation results are available from the VALUE validation portal for further investigation: http://www.value-cost.eu/validationportal.

VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user-focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.

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A study of the long-term changes of various climatic extremes was made jointly by a number of European countries. It was found that the changes in maximum and minimum temperatures follow, in broad terms, the corresponding well-documented mean temperature changes. Minimum temperatures, however, have increased slightly more than maximum temperatures, although both have increased. As a result, the study confirms that the diurnal temperature range has mostly decreased during the present century in Northern and Central Europe. Frost has become less frequent. Two extreme-related precipitation characteristics, the annual maximum daily precipitation and the number of days with precipitation. ; : : , , _ 10 mm, show no major trends or changes in their interannual variability. An analysis of return periods indicated that in the Nordic countries there were high frequencies of 'extraordinary' 1-day rainfalls both in the 1930s and since the 1980s. There have been no long-term changes in the number of high wind speeds in the German Bight. Occurrences of thunderstorms and hails show a decreasing tendency in the Czech Republic during the last 50 years. Finally, using proxy data sources, a 500-year temperature and precipitation event graph for the Swiss Mittelland is presented. It shows large interdecadal variations as well as the exceptionality of the latest decade 1986-1995.

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Introduction 381Life History 382Silver eel spawning migration 382Sex differences, size, energy constraints 384 Molecular phylogeography and the Iceland hybrids 388Hypotheses for the recent decline in recruitment 389Time of the recruitment collapse 389Oceanic cause of the recruitment collapse? 390Climate-related hydrological changes overlooked 391 AbstractThe collapse in recruitment of the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) since the early 1980s has been ascribed to possible overfishing, poisoning, parasitism, habitat loss and changes in ocean circulation. It is unclear which mechanism is most important, and firm data are lacking to make an assessment of the factors that apply over the full continental range. On the other hand, the recruitment of the American eel (A. rostrata) has declined along the western Atlantic at about the same time. This suggests a candidate mechanism that can affect both species together. A change in ocean climate may be a likely explanation, which is supported by a possible link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and one important recruitment index. However, it is unsafe to discard the other possible mechanisms because of lack of evidence. Habitat loss, in particular, may be important. We review over a century of evidence to suggest how the eel may have declined through progressive habitat loss that accelerated in the early 1980s as the result of economic development linked with hydrological changes. Although no single line of evidence can definitely prove one hypothesis for the eel decline, the total body of information may indicate a pronounced susceptibility in the southwest corner of the continental range closest to the Sargasso Sea that has been particularly affected by drought and dam construction. The sexual dimorphism of the species together with the energy requirements of the spawning migration may provide insight to explain the population collapse.

The variability of minimum and maximum temperature and the daily temperature range (DTR) in Poland was analyzed on the basis of the data from 9 stations with different periods of data (the longest was 98 yr). The long-term changes of seasonal means as well as for all Julian days were determined. The increase in the minimum temperature was accompanied by a slighter increase in the maximum temperature and a decrease in the DTR. It was found that the DTR changes correlate well with cloudiness, and the extreme temperature changes are related to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) intensity, especially during winter and spring. The analysis of intra-annual changes has shown that the strongest increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures occurs in mid-and late winter, but there are also periods with decreasing tendencies, i.e. late autumn, the beginning of winter and the beginning of summer. All temperature indices indicate the cooling in autumn.