Projections of future precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multimodel ensembles

Zhang, Wenqing; Liu, Liu; Lun, Yurui; Cheng, Lei; Li, Xiuping; Xu, Zongxue

doi:10.1002/joc.7865

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…For the projections, the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data was used in this study; the CMIP6 was conducted under the organization of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) [46], and the simulation data from previous phases of CMIP has been instrumental in enhancing our understanding of the climate and underlying mechanisms of climate change [47][48][49]. Here, we use gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data from four bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs), which are GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, UKESM1-0-sLL, and IPSL-CM6A-LR.…”

Section: Climate Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Xiao,

Li,

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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Glaciers play a vital role in the Asian mountain water towers and have significant downstream impacts on domestic, agricultural, and industrial water usage. The rate of glacier mass loss in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is among the highest in Asia and has intensified in recent decades. However, a comprehensive quantification that considers both spatial and temporal aspects of glacier mass loss across the entire SETP is still insufficient. This study aimed to address this gap by utilizing geodetic datasets specific to each glacier by calibrating the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven by HAR v2 and reconstructing the glacier mass balance of 7756 glaciers in the SETP from 1980 to 2019 while examining their spatial variability. The findings reveal that the average mass balance during this period was −0.50 ± 0.28 m w.e. a−1, with an accelerated loss observed in the 2000s (average: 0.62 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1). Notably, central glaciers in the SETP exhibited relatively smaller mass loss, indicating a gradient effect of increased loss from the central region toward the eastern and western sides. By the end of this century, the area, length, and volume of glaciers in the entire SETP region are projected to decrease by 83.57 ± 4.91%, 90.25 ± 4.23%, and 88.04 ± 4.52%, respectively. Moreover, the SETP glacier melt runoff is estimated to decrease by 62.63 ± 6.16% toward the end of the century, with the “peak water” point of glacier melt runoff predicted to occur in 2023 under the SSP585 scenario. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that the SETP glaciers are more than three times more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation variations, and the observed decrease in monsoon precipitation indicates the weakening magnitude of the Indian summer monsoon in recent years. The spatially refined and high-temporal-resolution characteristics of glacier mass loss presented in this study contribute to a better understanding of specific glacier changes in the SETP. Additionally, the prediction results provide valuable references for future water resources management and policy formulation in the SETP region.

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Section: Climate Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Xiao,

Li,

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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“…Great efforts have been devoted to projecting future precipitation changes over the TP under global warming. Based on the future scenario simulations of the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project (CMIP), a prominent wetting trend over the TP is captured throughout 21st century in response to different radiative forcings, with largest increase occurring in the southeastern TP (W. Chen et al., 2021; R. Chen et al., 2022; Jia et al., 2019; Lalande et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2021; J. Zhang et al., 2022; W. Zhang et al., 2022; Zhao et al., 2022). Global warming will increase humidity and enhance external water transport, leading to the increase of net water vapor content import and humidification over the TP (Yu et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Diversity of CMIP6 Models in the Projection of Precipitation Over Tibetan Plateau

Qiu,

Zhou,

Chen

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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A reliable projection of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for climate adaptation activities in this climate‐sensitive region, but existing studies show a large spread in magnitude. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we investigate the TP summer precipitation projection and understand the sources of uncertainty. The results show that the TP exhibits a profound wetting trend throughout the 21st century, with precipitation increasing by 0.64 ± 0.06 mm day−1 during 2050–2099 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The moisture budget analysis indicates that the thermodynamical response to global warming determines the precipitation increase. However, both the thermodynamical and dynamical components contribute to the uncertainty of precipitation projection. The inter‐model spread of the thermodynamic term arises from divergent global mean warming, which is closely related to model climate sensitivity. The uncertainty of the dynamic component is driven by model‐dependent circulation changes induced by different equatorial Pacific warming rates.

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Assessment of precipitation type discrimination methods on glacier of Qilian Mountains

Chen,

Du,

Kang

et al. 2023

J. Mt. Sci.

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Projections of future precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multimodel ensembles

Cited by 4 publications

References 71 publications

A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the Diversity of CMIP6 Models in the Projection of Precipitation Over Tibetan Plateau

Assessment of precipitation type discrimination methods on glacier of Qilian Mountains

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