Understanding the Diversity of CMIP6 Models in the Projection of Precipitation Over Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

A reliable projection of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for climate adaptation activities in this climate‐sensitive region, but existing studies show a large spread in magnitude. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we investigate the TP summer precipitation projection and understand the sources of uncertainty. The results show that the TP exhibits a profound wetting trend throughout the 21st century, with precipitation increasing by 0.64 ± 0.06 mm day−1 during 2050–2099 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The moisture budget analysis indicates that the thermodynamical response to global warming determines the precipitation increase. However, both the thermodynamical and dynamical components contribute to the uncertainty of precipitation projection. The inter‐model spread of the thermodynamic term arises from divergent global mean warming, which is closely related to model climate sensitivity. The uncertainty of the dynamic component is driven by model‐dependent circulation changes induced by different equatorial Pacific warming rates.