Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid‐21st century

Yin, Yongguang; Ma, Danyang; Wu, Shaohong; Pan, Tao

doi:10.1002/joc.4295

Cited by 45 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 65 publications

(85 reference statements)

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“…This kind of drying mechanism is consistent with that suggested in assessments dealing with changes in surface dryness during the 20th and 21st centuries using reconstructed data and future climate projections (Sherwood and Fu, 2014). Thus, our study might reflect an observed precursor of the projected drying trends over the humid areas in 21st century (Cook et al, 2014;Yin et al, 2015). The present results also indicate that drying of the land surface in response to warming is already in progress, not simply a future risk.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Park

Jeong

et al. 2017

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961 . Before the early 1980s (1961 -1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period , the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric waterholding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Park

Jeong

et al. 2017

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…Secondly, the climate simulation datasets used in this study were obtained from the ISI-MIP, which have been bias-corrected in the fasttrack of ISI-MIP using the trend-preserving method and can reproduce the observed climate very well [35]. Several studies have demonstrated the value of using the same projections by the 5 GCMs in climate change impact assessments for different sectors at the global and regional scales [50][51][52][53][54].…”

Section: Climate Model Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

Geng

Fang

Ren

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb-Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762-1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981-2016. A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant. While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant. en, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021-2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted. For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37°C under RCP4.5 and 1.54°C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021-2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively. GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA. e comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5.

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“…The surface air temperature in Chinese land increases in the 21st century under all the RCPs (Yin et al, 2015). Based on their positive sensitivities to temperature change, the national average GDD and GS in the long term are 279.1 CÁd higher and 16.5 days longer for RCP 2.6 and 964.4 CÁd higher and 50.3 days longer for RCP 8.5, relative to the present day.…”

Section: Future Changes In Gdd and Gsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent responses of thermal growing degree‐days and season to projected warming over China

Deng

Yin

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Thermal conditions, such as thermal growing degree‐days (GDD) and growing season (GS), have primary effects on vegetation growth. In this study, changes in GDD and GS during 1961–2099 in China have been projected using the daily mean temperatures derived from five general circulation models. The multi‐model mean values generally capture the spatio‐temporal changes in GDD and GS during 1961–2005 and are thus used for predicting the thermal conditions in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs). The GDD and GS are found to increase with warming, with stronger GDD enhancement in south and southwest China and larger GS extension in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Plateau. On average, nationally, the GDD increase and GS extension in the long term (2071–2099) range from 279.1 °C·d and 16.5 days for RCP 2.6 to 964.4 °C·d and 50.3 days for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981–2010. Advances in the start of the growing season would drive the GS extension in the mountainous area in northeast China, as well as south and southwest China. On the contrary, the delay at the end of the growing season would drive the GS extension in northwest China and the regions between northeast China and the tropic of Cancer. An analysis under RCP 8.5 suggests that the temperature sensitivity of GDD would increase from the near term (2011–2040) to the long term for the eastern monsoon zone (237.5to 262.1 °C·d/°C) and the northwest arid/semi‐arid zone (162.3 to 184.0 °C·d/°C). However, the sensitivity of GS to the warming would decrease from 10.9 to 8.4 days/°C and 9.1 to 6.8 days/°C for these two regions, respectively. As thermal conditions intensify, temperature zones in eastern China would progressively shift northward.

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Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid‐21st century

Cited by 45 publications

References 65 publications

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

Divergent responses of thermal growing degree‐days and season to projected warming over China

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