Projection of sea‐level change in the vicinity of Hong Kong in the 21st century

He, Yongqi; Mok, H. Y.; Lai, Edwin S. T.

doi:10.1002/joc.4551

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The SLR change in Hong Kong and adjacent region is projected to rise by 65 cm in 2081-2100 relative to the period of 1986-2005 based on the multiple model simulations in CMIP5 under the RCP 8.5 scenario, and the relative SLR is expected to increase by 84 cm near Hong Kong waters if the vertical land displacement effect is also taken into consideration 33 . Combined with the enhanced TC induced storm surge, the total storm tide could be around 92 cm (74%) higher in the far future near Hong Kong waters and the neighboring PRD area on station average.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method

Chen

Wang

Tam

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near-(2015-2039) and far-(2075-2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the coupled Model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075-2099 period. Producing almost 30% of global tropical cyclones (TCs), the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin on the Earth. Associated with strong winds, heavy rainfall and high storm surges, WNP TCs pose great threats to lives and cause significant economic and societal losses to cities along the Asian coastline. Adjacent to the South China Sea, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is one of the highly-urbanized megacity groups in China, which is also strongly affected by these storm systems 1-3. PRD has experienced devastating floods induced by TCs related heavy rainfall and storm surges. Super Typhoon Hato (2017) caused a maximum storm surge of 2.79 m in Zhuhai (https://www.weather.gov.hk/informtc/hato17/hato.htm), and super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) induced surges reaching 3.40 m in Hong Kong (https://www.weather.gov.hk/informtc/mangkhut18/mangkhut. htm). According to projections using general circulation models (GCMs), TCs may intensify globally 4-7 and also sea level rise (SLR) may accelerate 8,9 under global warming. Their combined effects will lead to increase of flood risks to the PRD area. However, TC physics cannot be realistically represented by GCMs, due to their relatively coarse resolution 10. Studies have also shown that there can be substantial variations in the response of TCs to climate change over different ocean basins 6,11 , while GCMs may introduce large biases when reproducing TCs activities over different

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method

Chen

Wang

Tam

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Records from 1991 and 2005 show that storm surges, in effect, created a SLR of between 1.9 and 2.6 m in the Pearl River Delta [ 64 ], while severe typhoons can create surges that are as high as 4 m [ 22 ]. Thus, much of the Pearl River Delta and Greater Bay Area could be vulnerable to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change, including SLR, floods caused by wave surges, saltwater intrusion, and an increase in the severity of storms [ 21 , 22 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Models of SLR [ 21 ] projected an average rise of about 0.67 m and 0.84 m for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, in the seas off Hong Kong, which is 0.2m higher than the global mean values projected by the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ 34 ]. Global temperature increases between 1.9 and 3.1°C can bring about fast Antarctic disintegration that can contribute an additional 0.21 to 0.74 m to SLR this century within 5 and 95% quantiles, respectively, of the RCP 8.5, and contributions of up to 0.45 m for the 95% quantile under RCP 4.5 [ 35 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wikramanayake¹,

Or²,

Costa

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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The ecological functionality of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway is threatened by the loss of wetlands which provide staging and wintering sites for migrating waterbirds. The disappearance of wetland ecosystems due to coastal development prevents birds from completing their migrations, resulting in population declines, and even an eventual collapse of the migration phenomenon. Coastal wetlands are also under threat from global climate change and its consequences, notably sea level rise (SLR), extreme storm events, and accompanying wave and tidal surges. The impacts of SLR are compounded by coastal subsidence and decreasing sedimentation, which can result from coastal development. Thus, important wetlands along the flyway should be assessed for the impacts of climate change and coastal subsidence to plan and implement proactive climate adaptation strategies that include habitat migration and possibility of coastal squeeze. We modelled the impacts of climate change and decreasing sedimentation rates on important bird habitats in the Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site to support a climate adaptation strategy that will continue to host migratory birds. Located in the Inner Deep Bay of the Pearl River estuary, Mai Po's tidal flats, coastal mangroves, marshes, and fishponds provide habitat for over 80,000 wintering and passage waterbirds. We applied the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to simulate habitat conversion under two SLR scenarios (1.5m and 2.0m) for 2050, 2075, and 2100 for four accretion rates (2mm/yr, 4 mm/yr, 8 mm/yr, 15 mm/yr). The results showed no discernible impact to habitats until after 2075, but projections for 2100 show that the mangroves, marshes and tidal flats could be impacted in almost all scenarios of SLR and accretion. Under a 1.5m SLR scenario, even at low tide, if accretion levels decrease to 4 mm/yr, the tidal flats will be inundated and with a 2 mm/yr accretion the mangroves will also be inundated. Thus, important shorebird habitats will be lost. During high tide the ponds inside the nature reserve, which are intensively managed to provide high tide roosting sites and other habitats for waterbirds, will also be inundated. Thus, with a 1.5m SLR and declining sedimentation the migratory shorebirds will lose habitat, including the high tide roosting habitats inside the nature reserve. The model also indicates that the fishponds further inland in the

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“…To inform the public and stakeholders of possible climate change impacts and support future planning, a number of studies have been conducted to examine the past changes and project the future trend in local and regional climate and related extreme weather events due to global climate change and local urbanization (e.g. Ginn et al 2010;Chan et al 2012;Lee et al , 2012aHe et al 2016). In particular, climate projection of temperature, wet-bulb temperature, rainfall, and mean sea level in Hong Kong are computed based on IPCC climate model data.…”

Section: (D) Climate Change and Climate Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban-focused weather and climate services in Hong Kong

2018

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Under the relentless pace of population growth and urban development, weather and climate services provided by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) since its establishment in 1883 have been evolving continuously with an increasing focus on the delivery of tailored information to meet the needs of special users and various stakeholders in the community. With meteorological observations at the headquarters of the Observatory dating back more than 130 years to 1884, the advent of automatic weather station network in the mid-1980s has significantly expanded the data coverage both in terms of spatial and temporal resolution. The establishment of the Community Weather Information Network in 2007 further extended the meteorological measurement to the school and community levels. Regular upper air soundings and the increasing availability of remote-sensing observations also enable the monitoring of meteorological parameters beyond the near-surface levels through the depth of the atmosphere. By integrating comprehensive weather observations and numerical weather prediction products, HKO now provides a wide range of forecasts covering multi-time scales and warnings and advisories for high-impact weather such as tropical cyclone, thunderstorm, heavy rain, landslide, flooding, and cold and very hot weather. Riding on the advances in communication technology in recent decades, members of the public have gained improved access to the latest weather warnings, advisories, weather information, and forecast for the next couple of hours to 9 days ahead, as well as forecasts near users' locations through HKO's website and mobile app. In addition to information for public consumption, HKO's services and products have been tailored in support of weather-sensitive operations such as those provided to users in the aviation and marine communities. In the process of such diversified development, HKO has successfully cultivated close partnerships with various stakeholders to enhance its weather and climate services by embracing the spirit of the Big Data and smart city concept in recent years, in particular in areas related to energy, water, health, and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, a review of the weather and climate services focusing on the urban aspects in Hong Kong will be presented, with examples illustrating specific applications in different sectors. Future thrusts in enhancing and integrating the urban weather and climate services for Hong Kong in the Big Data era under the Climate Friendly Demonstration City initiative and impact-based forecast approach promulgated by the World Meteorological Organization will also be discussed.

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Projection of sea‐level change in the vicinity of Hong Kong in the 21st century

Cited by 11 publications

References 38 publications

Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method

Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method

A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Urban-focused weather and climate services in Hong Kong

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