Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Boulanger, Jean‐Louis; Martinez, Fernando J.; Segura, Enrique Carlos

doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0182-0

Cited by 54 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Thus, the continuous negative trend already observed in Chile during most of the 20th century (see Minetti et al, 2003) will continue to grow to the end of this century. This is in agreement with seasonal and annual simulations based on other techniques in the region (CONAMA, 2006;Vera et al, 2006;Boulanger et al, 2007). However, regional rainfall is highly dependent on others factors that are not covered in this study.…”

Section: Fig 2 (A)-(n) Frequency Analysis For: (A)-(h) Temperature supporting

confidence: 79%

Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north‐central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed

Souvignet

Gaese

Ribbe

et al. 2010

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Downscaling of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is necessary to transfer predictions of potential climate change scenarios to local levels. This is of special interest in dry mountainous areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to risks of reduced freshwater availability. These areas play a key role in hydrology, since they usually receive the highest local precipitation amounts, which are then stored in the form of snow and glaciers. The performance and ability to simulate extreme events of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were tested in the arid Upper-Elqui watershed, Chile. Thereafter, future temperature and precipitation seasonal trends along with agro-hydrological indices were analysed for the HadCM3 A2a and B2a scenarios. Maximum and minimum temperatures for both linear trends and extreme events were simulated accurately. However, the results show that SDSM was not a very robust method for the simulation of precipitation. Nevertheless, future trends and indices indicate possible strong inter-seasonal perturbations.Key words arid mountainous watershed; climate change; impacts study; statistical downscaling; temperature; precipitation; SDSM; Elqui Valley; Chile Régionalisation statistique des températures et des précipitations dans le centre-nord du Chili: une évaluation des impacts possibles du changement climatique dans un bassin Andin aride Résumé La régionalisation des simulations de modèles de circulation générale océan-atmosphère est nécessaire pour le transfert des projections de scénarios potentiels de changement climatique aux échelles locales. Cela est décisif pour les zones montagneuses arides, qui sont particulièrement vulnérables au changement climatique, à cause des risques de réduction des ressources en eau disponibles. Ces zones jouent un rôle hydrologique clef puisqu'elles bénéficient habituellement des hauteurs de précipitation les plus élevées et stockent l'eau sous la forme de neige et de glaciers. Les performances et la capacité d'un modèle de régionalisation statistique (SDSM) à simuler des événements extrêmes ont été testées dans le bassin aride du haut Elqui au Chili. Ensuite, les tendances saisonnières futures de température et de précipitations, ainsi qu'une sélection d'indices agrohydrologiques, ont été analysées pour les scenarios A2a et B2a du modèle HadCM3. Les températures maximum et minimum sont simulées fidèlement pour les tendances linéaires et pour les événements extrêmes. Cependant, les résultats montrent que SDSM n'est pas une méthode très robuste quant à la simulation des précipitations. Néanmoins, les tendances futures ainsi que les indices indiquent de fortes perturbations possibles au niveau intersaisonnier. Mots clefs

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Section: Fig 2 (A)-(n) Frequency Analysis For: (A)-(h) Temperature supporting

confidence: 79%

Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north‐central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed

Souvignet

Gaese

Ribbe

et al. 2010

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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show abstract

“…Precipitation variations estimated by Boulanger et al (2007) indicate that the increase in rainfall registered in southeastern South America (south of Brazil, northeast and central sectors of Argentina and Uruguay) in the past 30 years are likely to continue in this century. A persistent positive trend could increase summer rainfalls between 5% and 30% in the southeastern band of the Monte (Fig.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Temperature and Rainfall During The 21smentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate in the Monte Desert: Past trends, present conditions, and future projections

Labraga

Villalba

2009

Journal of Arid Environments

150

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“…In the Andes, global climate model predictions of changes in total rainfall remain highly uncertain. In general, however, climate models in the Andes predict an increase in rainfall variability and, as a consequence, an increase in the frequency and duration of periods with water scarcity (Vera et al 2006;Boulanger et al 2007;Buytaert et al 2009). In anticipation of these changes, governments and NGOs are working with communities, local management systems, and public utilities to promote adaptation strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What facilitates adaptation? An analysis of community-based adaptation to environmental change in the Andes

Murtinho

2016

International Journal of the Commons

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This study analyses the environmental, socio-economic and institutional factors that influence community-based adaptation strategies in 16 municipalities in the rural Andes of Colombia. The study focuses specifically on the factors that influence whether communities decide to take measures to manage their water and micro-watersheds in response to water scarcity caused by climate variability and land-use changes. The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods incorporating data from surveys to 104 water user associations, precipitation and land-use data, municipal socio-economic information, and semistructured interviews with key informants. The results reveal 1) the links between environmental change and the type of adaptation that communities implement, and 2) how, in face of water scarcity changes, external funding facilitates adaptation. The findings of this study contributes to the common-pool resource and adaptation literatures by highlighting the important role that external actors may have in shaping collective action to adapt to environmental change.

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Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Cited by 54 publications

References 14 publications

Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north‐central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed

Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north‐central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed

Climate in the Monte Desert: Past trends, present conditions, and future projections

What facilitates adaptation? An analysis of community-based adaptation to environmental change in the Andes

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