In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992-98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997-98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1-2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s Ϫ1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10ЊN-10ЊS band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992-98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s Ϫ1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing.This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993-96 period and the 1997-98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central-western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Nin˜o event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a tenmembers ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El

A numerical simulation is used to investigate the mixed layer heat balance of the tropical Pacific Ocean including the equatorial cold tongue and the region of vortices associated with tropical instability waves (TIWs). The study is motivated by a need to quantify the effects that TIWs have on the climatological heat budget of the cold tongue mixed layer; there has been some discrepancy between observations indicating very large equatorward heat transport by TIWs and models that disagree on the full three-dimensional budget. Validation of the model reveals that the TIW-induced circulation patterns are realistic but may have amplitudes about 15% weaker than those in the observations. The SST budget within tropical instabilities is first examined in a frame of reference moving with the associated tropical instability vortices (TIVs). Zonal advection of temperature anomalies and meridional advection of temperature by current anomalies dominate horizontal advection. These effects strongly heat the cold cusps and slightly cool the downwelling areas located at the leading edge of the vortices. Cooling by vertical mixing is structured at the vortex scale and almost compensates for horizontal advective heating in the cold cusps. In contrast to some previous studies, TIW-induced vertical advection is found to be negligible in the SST budget. Cooling by this term is only significant below the mixed layer. The effect of TIWs on the climatological heat budget is then investigated for the region bounded by 2°S–6°N, 160°–90°W, where instabilities are most active. TIW-induced horizontal advection leads to a warming of 0.84°C month−1, which is of the same order as the 0.77°C month−1 warming effect of atmospheric fluxes, while the mean currents and vertical mixing cool the upper ocean by −0.59°C month−1 and −1.06°C month−1, respectively. The cooling effect of TIW-induced vertical advection is also negligible in the long-term surface layer heat budget and only becomes significant below the mixed layer. The results above, and in particular the absence of cancellation between horizontal and vertical TIW-induced eddy advection, are robust in three other sensitivity experiments involving different mixing parameterizations and increased vertical resolution.