Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania

Juknys, Romualdas; Velička, Rimantas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Kriaučiūnienė, Zita; Masilionytė, Laura; Vagusevičienė, Ilona; Pupalienė, Rita; Klepeckas, Martynas; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

doi:10.1007/s00484-017-1360-y

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…In the future climate scenarios, increasing temperatures resulted in a significant alteration of wheat phenology at each of the eight stations. Generally, higher warming accelerates phenological development [42], resulting in less time to grow over the course of the growing season [43]. Warmer temperatures accelerate phenological development, resulting in less nutrient uptake and radiation interception, consequently lowering biomass production over the course of the growing season [44].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

2018

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With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031-2060 referred to as 40S and 2071-2100 referred to as 80S). Relative to the baseline period (1981-2010), the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP) and the whole growth period (WGP). As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP) of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO 2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO 2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station) under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET) decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET) under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE) significantly improved in the future period.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

2018

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“…Elevated CO 2 and temperature (day/night temperature of 25/18 °C and 800 ppm of CO 2 , ETC) and elevated CO 2 (day/night temperature of 21/14 °C and 800 ppm of CO 2 , EC) treatments started when the seedlings of summer rape were germinated, and lasted for 4 weeks. The elevated temperature and CO 2 concentrations were increased to the level in accordance with the climate change scenario for Lithuania (Juknys et al 2017). The pre-set values of the air temperature in the growth chambers were controlled manually at each of the growth chambers (Emerson Network Power S.r.l., Italy, model No.…”

Section: Plant Materials and Growth Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Aboveground and below-ground carbon allocation of summer rape under elevated CO2 and air temperature

Juozapaitienė

Dikšaitytė

Sujetovienė

et al. 2019

AFSci

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In studies on plant responses to climate change more attention has been given to aboveground processes although carbon input by plants into the soil is a major flux in the global carbon cycle. The objective of study was to investigate the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on carbon allocation and partitioning in different parts of plant, soil, and microbial biomass. An experiment was conducted on summer rape (Brassica napus L.) under increased levels of air temperature and atmospheric CO2 in controlled environment chambers. Results showed that the amount of leaf, stem and root carbon statistically significantly increased under elevated CO2 and temperature conditions. Microbial biomass carbon significantly increased by 11.2% and 13.5% under elevated CO2 and elevated CO2 and temperature, respectively, although soil carbon under both treatments decreased. It is concluded that carbon allocation is controlled under different climate conditions; however, elevated CO2 and temperature together will have a more significant effect for carbon allocation to different plant parts and microbial biomass carbon compared to elevated CO2 alone.

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“…The calculation of accumulated temperatures is described in detail in a previous work by Juknys et al . (2017). In short, the procedure can be summarized as follows.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For phenological analysis in the present work, the amount of accumulated temperature required for the occurrence of the following phenological phases of spring barley was evaluated: sowing, emergence, heading and harvest. The calculation of accumulated temperatures is described in detail in a The Journal of Agricultural Science previous work by Juknys et al (2017). In short, the procedure can be summarized as follows.…”

Section: Projection Of Phenological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various values of the threshold temperature are suggested as essential for early spring phases of plants (Moreno et al, 2014;Kalvāns et al, 2015). According to various studies (Cannell and Smith, 1983;Juknys et al, 2017;Středová et al, 2017), it is approximately 5°C for most plants, including barley. The active temperature (T*) necessary for the occurrence of different phenological phases was evaluated using Eqn (1): first, T* was calculated for all years and then averaged over the observation period.…”

Section: Projection Of Phenological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

et al. 2018

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Though the number of climate-change-related agro-phenological investigations are growing rapidly, the attention paid to spring crops has been much less than to winter ones. The objective of the current study was to investigate long-term temporal and spatial trends of spring barley phenology and to project changes in the timing and duration of different phenological phases during the current century. Higher temperatures significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Historical trends in harvest dates of spring barley showed a slight delay. These changes resulted in the extension of the total vegetative period of spring barley by >12 days over the period investigated (1961–2015). Since Lithuania is situated on the Baltic Sea, an increase in temperature along with an increase in distance from the sea was characteristic over the last 55 years. Projected changes in the occurrence of phenological phases of spring barley differ significantly from analysed historical changes and advancement of all phenological phases have been projected according to both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Shortening of the total vegetative period by 5 days is foreseen for the far (2071–2100) future according to the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario.

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Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania

Cited by 15 publications

References 47 publications

Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

Aboveground and below-ground carbon allocation of summer rape under elevated CO2 and air temperature

Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

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