Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

Abstract

With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031-2060 referred to as 40S and 2071-2100 referred to as 80S). Relative to the baseline period (1981-2010), the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP) and the whole growth period (WGP). As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP) of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO 2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO 2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station) under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET) decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET) under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE) significantly improved in the future period.

Multi‐model ensemble of CMIP6 projections for future extreme climate stress on wheat in the North China plain

“…Generally, warming climate could accelerate crop growth and thereby advance crop phenological stages (Xiao et al ., 2015; Hu et al ., 2017). Compared with the past three decades (1981–2010), previous study has noted that the flowering and maturity dates of wheat in the NCP were significantly advanced during two future periods of 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (Xiao et al ., 2018a). However, in this study, future extreme climate indices for different wheat growth periods were calculated based on the historical phenology records, and the changes of wheat phenology caused by warming climate and agronomic practices in the future were not considered.…”

Combining QTL Analysis and Genomic Predictions for Four Durum Wheat Populations Under Drought Conditions

“…This region is the largest consumer of durum wheat products and the most significant durum import market (Soriano et al, 2017). The Mediterranean basin is subject to frequent droughts and their occurrence is expected to raise in the near future, with a significant negative effect on crop development and production (Xiao et al, 2018). Breeding for durum genotypes that have an improved yield and tolerance to drought remains one of the most strategic methods to protect the harvest of this crop (Habash et al, 2009;Tadesse et al, 2016;Kuzmanoviae et al, 2018).…”

Rising Atmospheric Temperature Impact on Wheat and Thermotolerance Strategies

“…Climate change is the result of a higher level of greenhouse gases such carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide, and methane (CH 4 ). These gases can entrap the sun rays leading towards the severity of extreme events for crops development [ 1 , 2 ]. It has been observed that CO 2 was increased 0.6 ± 0.1 ppm/year in the early 1960s and 2.3 ± 0.6 ppm/year during the last decade.…”