Projecting future sea level rise : methodology, estimates to the year 2100, and research needs / by John S. Hoffman, Dale Keyes, James G. Titus.

Hoffman, John S.; Keyes, Dale L.; Titus, James G.

doi:10.5962/bhl.title.39171

Cited by 55 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 6 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…Revelle (1983), for instance, does not take into account increasing accumulation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The high values in Hoffman et al (1983) are mainly due to the much larger effect of thermal expansion. As pointed out by Van der Veen (1986), this is due to the use of a thermocline temperature that is too high.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A projection of future sea level

Oerlemans

1989

Climatic Change

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Abstract. Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water.For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the 'observed' rise.A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large (o = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found (o = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wigley and Raper, 1987) or purely diffusion model (e.g. Hoffman et al, 1983). Wigley and Raper showed that the results between those models start to differ after one or two centuries.…”

Section: Thermal Expansion Of the Oceanmentioning

confidence: 99%

A projection of future sea level

Oerlemans

1989

Climatic Change

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“…Si se comparan estos datos con los de otros autores como Hoffman et al (1983) y Robin (en NRC, 1987, se observa que sus resultados fluctúan alrededor de los escenarios considerados por el NRC (Fig. 2).…”

Section: Metodologiaunclassified

Definition of erosion and inundation hazard zones in Todos Santos Bay, Baja California, Mexico

Montoya-Turrillas

Gómez-Morín-Fuentes²

2021

Cienc. Mar.

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RESUMENSe realizó la predicción del retroceso de la línea de costa con base en la elevación del nivel del mar, considerando tres escenarios proyectados de 0.5, 1.0 y 1.5 metros, y se obtiene la componente local de elevación del nivel del mar para la bahía de Todos Santos, Baja California.Posteriormente, se aplicó la "Regla de Brunn" con ciertas modificaciones para calcular el retroceso de la línea de costa en el período de 1983-2100. Tomando en cuenta los escenarios de la futura elevación y las características geomorfológicas de la costa, se definió la zona que presenta riesgo de erosión e inundación, indicándose las recomendaciones para la planificación del desarrollo en esta zona. ABSTRACTA prediction of coastline retreat was made based on relative sea leve1 rise, considering three projected scenarios of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 meters, obtaining also the local component of sea leve1 rise for Todos Santos Bay, Baja California.The "Brunn Rule" was applied with certain modifications, to calculate the coastline retreat from 1983 to 2100. Taking into account the sea leve1 rise scenarios and the geomorphologic characteristics of the coast, the erosion and inundation hazard zones were defined, pointing out the recommendations for the development planning of the area. INTRODUCCION INTRODUCTIONLas zonas costeras del mundo representan una de las regiones más variables y complejas de nuestro planeta, pues forman la única interfase entre los tres principales ambientes de la tierra: los continentes, el océano y la atmósfera.Al considerar la variabilidad y fragilidad de la línea de costa, necesitamos entender las fuerzas que las modifican y cómo responde a ello esta frontera. Los conocimientos que se tienen sobre la interacción compleja entre la The world's coastal zones represent one of the most variable and complex regions of our planet, since they form the only interface between the three principal land environments: the continents, the otean and the atmosphere.Upon considering the variability and fragility of the shoreline, we need to understand the powers that modify them and how this frontier responds to them. The data that exists on the complex interaction between 25

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“…Scientific knowledge about the increase in sea level is considerable. A number of studies (Meehl et al, 2007;Wigley & Raper 1992;Smith & Tirpak, 1990;and Hoffman et al, 1983) were conducted with different results. However, the variations in sea level are normally measured in two ways.…”

Section: Review Of Sea Level Rise Impacts Adaptation and Microfinancementioning

confidence: 99%

Applicability of Microfinance for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise Impacts

Kulpraneet¹

2017

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The aim of this study is to study the applicability of hypothetical microfinance for household adaptation to sea level rise impacts at community level. The study examines two hypothesis: 1) microfinance can (cannot) be applied as an adaptive measure to the impacts of sea level rise; 2) whether or not the factors of risk perceptions, attitudes, social references, microfinance conditions, government supports, and demographic influence an individual participation to a designed microfinance. The study sites are six vulnerable coastal villages located in the Gulf of Thailand. A designed microfinance for adaptation to sea level rise impacts is assumed in hypothetical market and tested with residents in the villages. Acceptance analysis, Pearson correlation, and stepwise regression analysis are used to test the hypothesis of the study.The study results reveal that microfinance can be applied for household adaptation to sea level rise impacts at community level. However, there are some correlated factors that affect individual participation to the designed microfinance. The likelihood of successful implementation of microfinance for the adaptation purposes is depended on how those factors affecting participation are properly addressed by implementer.

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Projecting future sea level rise : methodology, estimates to the year 2100, and research needs / by John S. Hoffman, Dale Keyes, James G. Titus.

Cited by 55 publications

References 6 publications

A projection of future sea level

A projection of future sea level

Definition of erosion and inundation hazard zones in Todos Santos Bay, Baja California, Mexico

Applicability of Microfinance for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise Impacts

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