Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124155

Cited by 263 publications

(256 citation statements)

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“…These estimates are larger than those reported in studies using coarser resolution approaches, which yield <30% reductions for Latin America (1) using 2.5 arc-minute resolution. The higher resolution of our model in mountainous regions, and differences between climate model generations [i.e., Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)/CMIP3 vs. RCP/CMIP5] used here account for the different results (1,2). Most of the future suitable range for coffee will occur in areas currently suitable for coffee.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The small areas of increased coffee suitability generally occur in higherelevation areas, as suitability moves upslope to compensate for increased temperature (1,19). This explains the significant loss in total suitable area in less montane areas (Nicaragua, Honduras, and Venezuela) and slight expansion in other areas (Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, and Costa Rica).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…coffee | adaptation strategies | smallholder farms | suitability modeling | pollination C limate change impact assessments suggest a significant reduction, up to 50% (1,2), in the global area suitable for coffee farming by midcentury. Such losses will affect the livelihoods of 100 million people in the coffee industry (2).…”

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Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Imbach

Fung

Lee

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffeesuitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.coffee | adaptation strategies | smallholder farms | suitability modeling | pollination C limate change impact assessments suggest a significant reduction, up to 50% (1, 2), in the global area suitable for coffee farming by midcentury. Such losses will affect the livelihoods of 100 million people in the coffee industry (2). The direct effect of climate change on the climatic suitability of coffee farms may be mitigated or accentuated by further effect on pollinators (3). These coupled effects have not been examined in coffee climate studies.Pollinator activity at flowers has a positive effect on coffee yield (4), fruit set (5-7), and berry weight (4, 7). Significant fruit set increases occur on coffee farms as the number of bee species increases from 3 to 20 (5). Native bee species are often more effective coffee pollinators than nonnative honey bees (8), and maximizing their diversity can help provide continuous pollination over time (9). The number of flower visits and pollen deposition on flowers are higher for coffee plants close to the forest (5, 9-11) because food and nesting sites maintain pollinator populations year-round (9). Native bee foraging activity declines within hundreds of meters (up to 1,600 m) from forests where bees nest (9), making forest proximity an important determinant of pollination service. In tropical forest regions where coffee is grown, the abundant native bees are ...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Imbach

Fung

Lee

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…First, climate change affects crop yield because changes in rainfall and temperature affect crop growth and development (Antón et al 2013, Ewert et al 2015, Holzkämper et al 2015, Islam et al 2012, Kim et al 2016, Ko,Ahuja 2014, Yan-Ling et al 2012. Second, changes on existing climate in an area can alter crop suitability in the region (Bonfante et al 2015, Chemura et al 2015, Jayathilaka et al 2012, Lane, Jarvis 2007, Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015, Ramirez-Cabral et al 2016, Wang et al 2015, Zabel et al 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Salvacion

2017

Quaestiones Geographicae

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SAlvAcion A.r., 2017. Mapping spatio-temporal changes in climatic suitability of corn in the Philippines under future climate condition. Quaestiones Geographiceae 36(1), Bogucki Wydownictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 105-120, 11 figs, 5 tables.AbStrAct: This study assessed the spatio-temporal changes in corn climatic suitability in the Philippines under future climate condition. Using extracted climatic data from WorldClim database for the country under baseline and future climate condition, changes in corn suitability was assessed using fuzzy logic approach and published rainfall and temperature requirement of the crop. Based on the data, the large portion of the country will experience increase in monthly total rainfall (88%) while increase in monthly mean and minimum temperature under future climate condition is projected for the entire country. These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location. On the average, changes in rainfall resulted in reduction (8%) and improvement (6%) in corn suitability while increase in temperature resulted in 5% and 0.4% reduction and improvement, respectively.

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“…Smallholder coffee farmers are similarly vulnerable to climate change. Coffee is sensitive to temperature variability and temperature increase (Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015), which can cause significant reductions in yield, aggravated by pest and disease outbreaks that can increase under changing climatic conditions (Baca et al 2014;Bunn et al 2015;Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015;Avelino et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

et al. 2016

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The impacts of climate change exacerbate the myriad challenges faced by smallholder farmers in the Tropics. In many of these same regions, there is a lack of current, consistent, and spatially-explicit data, which severely limits the ability to locate smallholder communities, map their adaptive capacity, and target adaptation measures to these communities. To explore the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in three data-poor countries in Central America, we leveraged expert input through in-depth mapping interviews to locate agricultural landscapes, identify smallholder farming systems within them, and characterize different components of farmer adaptive capacity. We also used this input to generate an index of adaptive capacity that allows for comparison across countries and farming systems. Here, we present an overview of the expert method used, followed by an examination of our results, including the intercountry variation in expert knowledge and the characterization of adaptive capacity for both subsistence Climatic Change (2017) The Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, USA and smallholder coffee farmers. While this approach does not replace the need to collect regular and consistent data on farming systems (e.g. agricultural census), our study demonstrates a rapid assessment approach for using expert input to fill key data gaps, enable trans-boundary comparisons, and to facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable smallholder communities for adaptation planning in data-poor environments that are typical of tropical regions. One potential benefit from incorporating this approach is that it facilitates the systematic consideration of fieldbased and regional experience into assessments of adaptive capacity, contributing to the relevance and utility of adaptation plans.

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Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

Cited by 263 publications

References 20 publications

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

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