Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events  during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O’Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

doi:10.5194/os-12-613-2016

Cited by 38 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…The wave model is configured to use 36 directional bins (giving a directional resolution of 10 ∘ ) and 30 frequency bins, using a logarithmic distribution, with a minimum frequency of 0.04118 Hz. Source terms described in Tolman and Chalikov (1996), representing energy input and dissipation by bottom friction, depth-limited wave breaking and whitecapping, were chosen following on from a comparison made by Cannaby et al (2015). JONSWAP was used for dissipation by bottom friction and Battjes and Janssen for depth-limited breaking, with the dissipation constant set to the default value of 1.…”

Section: Wave Model Setup and Methods For Global And European Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High‐End Climate Change Scenarios

Bricheno

Wolf

2018

JGR Oceans

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Changes in future North Atlantic storminess will impact upon wave conditions along the European coasts, with implications for coastal erosion, overtopping, and flood risk. In this study we make a detailed analysis of historic and future wave conditions around the European Atlantic coast, making projections out to the year 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 future emissions scenarios. A decrease in mean significant wave height of the order 0.2 m is projected across most of the European coast. Increases in the annual maximum and 99th percentile wave height as large as 0.5–1 m are observed in some areas but with a more complex spatial pattern. An increase in waves to the north of Scotland is also observed, mainly caused by a reduction in sea ice. We generate a set of coastal wave projections at around 10‐km resolution around continental Europe, Ireland, and the British Isles. Widening of the probability density function (PDF) is observed, suggesting an increased intensity of rare high wave events in the future. The emergent signal of a reduced mean wave height is statistically robust, while the future changes in extreme waves have a wider confidence interval. An assessment of different extreme waves metrics reveals different climate change response at very high percentiles; thus, care should be taken when assessing future changes in rare wave events.

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Section: Wave Model Setup and Methods For Global And European Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High‐End Climate Change Scenarios

Bricheno

Wolf

2018

JGR Oceans

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“…Additionally, the spatial patterns of OHC change under future climate change are an important source of uncertainty in regional sea level projections (e.g. Pardaens et al 2011, Slangen et al 2014, Cannaby et al 2016. There is therefore a need to understand both the global and spatial response of OHC to past and future climate forcings in order to better constrain projections of future climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles

Allison

Roberts

Palmer

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Observational estimates of global ocean heat content (OHC) change are used to assess Earth's energy imbalance over the 20th Century. However, intercomparison studies show that the mapping methods used to interpolate sparse ocean temperature profile data are a key source of uncertainty. We present a new approach to assessing OHC mapping methods using 'synthetic profiles' generated from a state-of-the-art global climate model simulation. Synthetic profiles have the same sampling characteristics as the historical ocean temperature profile data but are based on model simulation data. Mapping methods ingest these data in the same way as they would real observations, but the resultant mapped fields can be compared to a model simulation 'truth'. We use this approach to assess two mapping methods that are used routinely for climate monitoring and initialisation of decadal forecasts. The introduction of the Argo network of autonomous profiling floats during the 2000s drives clear improvements in the ability of these methods to reconstruct the variability and spatial structure of OHC changes. At depths below 2000 m, both methods underestimate the magnitude of the simulated ocean warming signal. Temporal variability and trends in OHC are better captured in the better-observed northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. At all depths, the sampling characteristics of the historical data introduces some spurious variability in the estimates of global OHC on sub-annual to multiannual timescales. However, many of the large scale spatial anomalies, especially in the upper ocean, are successfully reconstructed even with sparse observations from the 1960s, demonstrating the potential to construct historical ocean analyses for assessing decadal predictions. The value of using accurate global covariances for data-poor periods is clearly seen. The results of this 'proof-of-concept' study are encouraging for gaining further insights into the capabilities and limitations of different mapping methods and for quantifying uncertainty in global OHC estimates.

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“…It is partly this aspect of the sea level response that motivates scientists and stakeholders to think beyond the 2100 time-horizon that typifies sea level projections rooted in climate model simulations (e.g. Church et al 2013, Slangen et al 2014, Cannaby et al 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator

Palmer

Harris

Gregory

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator AbstractWe present a physically-based emulator approach to extending 21st century CMIP5 model simulations of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and global thermal expansion (TE) to 2300. A two-layer energy balance model that has been tuned to emulate the CO 2 response of individual CMIP5 models is combined with model-specific radiative forcings to generate an emulated ensemble to 2300 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Errors in the emulated time series are quantified using a subset of CMIP5 models with data available to 2300 and factored into the ensemble uncertainty. The resulting projections show good agreement with 21st century ensemble projections reported in IPCC AR5 and also compare favourably with individual CMIP5 model simulations post-2100. There is a tendency for the two-layer model simulations to overestimate both GMST rise and TE under RCP2.6, which is suggestive of a systematic error in the applied radiative forcings. Overall, the framework shows promise as a basis for extending process-based projections of global sea level rise beyond the 21st century time horizon that typifies CMIP5 simulations. The results also serve to illustrate the differing responses of GMST and Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. GMST responds relatively quickly to changes in emissions, leading to a negative trend post-2100 for RCP2.6, although temperature remains substantially elevated compared to present day at 2300. In contrast, EEI remains positive under all RCPs, and results in ongoing sea level rise from TE.

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Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Cited by 38 publications

References 41 publications

Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High‐End Climate Change Scenarios

Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High‐End Climate Change Scenarios

Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles

Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator

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