Projected responses of Cerrado anurans to climate change are mediated by biogeographic character

Alves‐Ferreira, Gabriela; Giné, Gastón Andrés Fernandez; Fortunato, Danilo de Siqueira; Solé, Mirco; Heming, Neander Marcel

doi:10.1016/j.pecon.2021.12.001

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…to predict amphibian's range shifts. This finding reinforces the idea that biogeographic variables may be more important than life history traits in predicting the climate change effects on amphibians' distribution (Alves-Ferreira et al, 2022). To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review of published data that assesses the global effects of climate change on amphibian distribution using biological and biogeographic traits as predictors.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…Although it is already known that biological and biogeographic characteristics can influence the intensity and direction of species response to climate change (Foden et al, 2013;Borges et al, 2019;Alves-Ferreira et al, 2022), a few studies have assessed the existence of global patterns on climate change response using these traits. In this study, we assessed the global patterns of climate change effects on amphibian (Anura and Caudata) distributions through a trait-and biogeographical-based analysis of published data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

et al. 2022

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Climate change can affect species distribution patterns in three different ways: pushing them to disperse to new suitable areas, forcing them to adapt to novel climatic conditions, or driving them to extinction. However, the biological and geographical traits that lead to these different responses remain poorly explored. Here, we evaluated how ecological and biogeographic traits influence amphibians’ response to climate change. We performed a systematic review searching for studies that evaluated the effects of future climate change on amphibian’s distribution. Our research returned 31 articles that projected the distribution of 331 amphibians. Our results demonstrate that species inhabiting an elevation above 515 m will lose a significant portion of their climatically suitable area. We also found that as isothermality increases, the amount of area suitable in response to climate change also increases. Another important discovery was that as the size of the baseline area increases, the greater must be the loss of climatically suitable areas. On the other hand, species with very small areas tend to keep their current climatically suitable area in the future. Furthermore, our results indicate that species that inhabit dry habitats tend to expand their suitable area in response to climate change. This result can be explained by the environmental characteristics of these habitats, which tend to present extreme seasonal climates with well-defined periods of drought and rain. We also found that anurans that inhabit exclusively forests are projected to lose a greater portion of their suitable areas, when compared to species that inhabit both forest and open areas, wetlands, and dry and rupestrian environments. The biogeographical realm also influenced anuran’s range shifts, with Afrotropic and Nearctic species projected to expand their geographical ranges. The assessment of climate change effects on amphibian distribution has been the focus of a growing number of studies. Despite this, some regions and species remain underrepresented. Current literature evaluates about 4% of the 7,477 species of Anura and 8% of the 773 species of Caudata and some regions rich in amphibian species remain severely underrepresented, such as Madagascar. Thus, future studies should focus on regions and taxas that remain underrepresented.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

et al. 2022

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“…Our projections of climate-only and climate/land-use changes show that climate change alone is projected to reduce suitable environments by more than 50% on average, while accounting for land-use changes, these losses often surpass 70% for most ecoregions. Distribution contractions have been projected for anurans in the Neotropics as a whole (Menéndez-Guerrero et al, 2020) and within certain Brazilian ecoregions such as the Atlantic Forest (Lourenço- de-Moraes et al, 2019) and the Cerrado (Alves-Ferreira et al, 2022;Vasconcelos et al, 2018). Because of their dependence on water bodies, anurans are disproportionately sensitive to climate change, which is expected to promote a shrinkage in habitat availability as precipitation patterns change and the Neotropics become drier and subject to more prolonged droughts (Nolan et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decoupled responses of biodiversity facets driven from anuran vulnerability to climate and land‐use changes

et al. 2023

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Biodiversity loss not only implies the loss of species but also entails losses in other dimensions of biodiversity, such as functional, phylogenetic and interaction diversity. Yet, each of those facets of biodiversity may respond differently to extinctions. Here, we examine how extinction, driven by climate and land‐use changes may affect those different facets of diversity by combining empirical data on anuran–prey interaction networks, species distribution modelling and extinction simulations in assemblages representing four Neotropical ecoregions. We found a mismatch in the response of functional, phylogenetic and interaction diversity to extinction. In spite of high network robustness to extinction, the effects on interaction diversity were stronger than those on phylogenetic and functional diversity, declining linearly with species loss. Although it is often assumed that interaction patterns are reflected by functional diversity, assessing species interactions may be necessary to understand how species loss translates into the loss of ecosystem functions.

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“…We also found that there is a mismatch between the response of functional, phylogenetic, and interaction diversity to extinction, with interaction diversity decreasing faster than phylogenetic and functional diversity, despite the overall network structure being seemingly robust to low levels of extinction. and the Cerrado (Vasconcelos et al 2018;Alves-Ferreira et al 2022). Because anurans are disproportionately sensitive to land use changes, the synergetic effects of climate/land use projections have a high impact on their distributions (Newbold 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decoupled responses of biodiversity facets driven from anuran vulnerability to climate and land use changes

Ceron¹,

Sales²,

Santana³

et al. 2022

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Anthropogenic climate and land use changes are the main drivers of biodiversity loss, promoting a major reorganization of the biota in all ecosystems. Biodiversity loss implies not only in the loss of species, but also entails losses in other dimensions of biodiversity, such as functional diversity, phylogenetic diversity and the diversity of ecological interactions.Yet, each of those facets of biodiversity may respond differently to extinctions. Here, we examine how extinction, driven by climate and land-use changes may affect different facets of diversity (functional, phylogenetic, and interaction diversity) by combining empirical data on interaction networks between anurans and their prey, species distribution modeling and extinction simulations.We used species distribution modeling to forecast the redistribution of anurans and create a species vulnerability rank based on expected range changes, then we simulate the extinction of anurans based on this rank. Next, we computed the variation in the functional, phylogenetic, and interaction diversities resulting from projected extinctions in four different ecoregions in the Neotropics. We found that the anuran vulnerability to climate and land-use change varies according to the level of trophic specialization. We also found a mismatch in the response of functional, phylogenetic, and interaction diversity to species’ extinction, whereby the effects on interaction diversity are stronger than those on phylogenetic and functional diversity. Although it is often assumed that interaction patterns are reflected by functional diversity, assessing the interaction patterns is necessary to understand how species loss may translate into the loss of ecosystem functions.

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Projected responses of Cerrado anurans to climate change are mediated by biogeographic character

Cited by 7 publications

References 39 publications

Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

Decoupled responses of biodiversity facets driven from anuran vulnerability to climate and land‐use changes

Decoupled responses of biodiversity facets driven from anuran vulnerability to climate and land use changes

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