Projected changes in the season of hot days in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

The present study analyses changes in the timing and duration of the hot days season over the Middle East and North Africa region from 1970 to 2099 using model simulations of 11 regional models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, a non‐symmetrical lengthening of the hot days season is projected, with a tendency to extend more into spring than into autumn. By the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario, Western Africa and the Persian Gulf display a hot days season starting 60 days earlier than in the historical period (1970–1999) (May vs. July, respectively). Southernmost latitudes are the most affected by a later retreat of the hot days season, of up to 60 days with respect to the historical period (October vs. August). The length of the extreme season is projected to increase between 100 and 120 days for the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions.

Analysis of long‐term trends and variations in extreme high air temperatures in May over Turkey and a record‐breaking heatwave event of May 2020

“…These results obtained such that the season of hot days (the period between the first day and the last day that exceeded the local 95th percentile of the daily maximum temperature) over the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region) from 1970 to 2099 consistent with the predicted results. Indeed, changes in the length of the season of hot days arise from earlier onsets and delayed ends, but with an asymmetrical shift involving larger changes toward earlier dates (Varela et al ., 2022).…”