Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50‐Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America

Abstract

Global warming is expected to produce modifications in the intensity, as well as in the seasonality and spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation. In the present study, the temporal evolution of simulated daily and subdaily precipitation extremes was analyzed to assess how they respond to climate warming over different time horizons. Pooling series from the recent 50‐member Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 Large Ensemble, the probability distributions, date and time of occurrences, and spatiotemporal structure of simulated Annual Maxima (AM) precipitation were analyzed at various spatial scales and for durations between 1 hr and 3 days. In agreement with previous studies, the results underline the large increases in AM precipitation quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events (i.e., longest return periods), and modifications in their spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles. For instance, subdaily AM extremes are expected to occur later in the evening, while, no matter the duration, the extremes are expected to occur over a wider period of the year in future climate. Finally, the analysis of projected AM probability distributions showed that heavy‐tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters. These results may have major consequences in terms of the occurrence and possible impacts of the most extreme precipitation events.

Evolution of Dry and Wet Spells Under Climate Change Over North‐Eastern North America

“…Considering the high spatial resolution of the CRCM5‐LE, grid values are subsampled at a 1/4 ratio meaning that one grid‐point is randomly selected among each nonoverlapping block of four grid‐points. This leads to almost the same number of grid‐points than the other RCMs (Innocenti, Mailhot, Leduc, et al., 2019). CRCM5‐LE was used to assess the spatio‐temporal structure of extreme precipitation (Innocenti, Mailhot, Frigon, et al., 2019) as well as the response of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes to future warming conditions (Innocenti, Mailhot, Leduc, et al., 2019).…”

The Response of Daily and Sub‐Daily Extreme Precipitations to Changes in Surface and Dew‐Point Temperatures

“…The performance of this data set in simulating the spatio‐temporal structure of extreme precipitation over the NNA domain was investigated by Innocenti, Mailhot, Frigon, et al. (2019) as well as the response of daily and sub‐daily precipitation extremes to future warming conditions (Innocenti, Mailhot, Leduc, et al., 2019). Martel et al.…”

Climate Change and Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves: Overview of Science and Guidelines for Adaptation

“…3(a)]. These studies aim to assess projected changes in rainfall extremes better and to understand better the driving processes (e.g., Innocenti et al 2019;Kirchmeier-Young and Zhang 2020;Myhre et al 2019;Wood and Ludwig 2020). Many international initiatives have also emerged to improve the understanding regarding the relationships between global warming, atmospheric circulation, and extreme rainfall events, such as the INTElligent use of climate models for adaptatioN to nonStationary hydrological Extremes (INTENSE) project (Blenkinsop et al 2018).…”