Projected Changes in Temperature-related Morbidity and Mortality in Southern New England

Weinberger, Kate R.; Kirwa, Kipruto; Eliot, Melissa; Gold, Julia; Suh, Helen; Wellenius, Gregory A.

doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000000825

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Several combinations of lag days were assessed in the sensitivity analysis (14-day lag and 21-day lag), but the relationship remained mostly flat. Other international studies found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and A&E department attendances similar to that seen with mortality data [8,15]. A study conducted in Southern New England demonstrated that both high and low temperatures were associated with higher rates of all-cause A&E department attendances and that the slope of the exposure-response function was steeper for high temperatures than for low temperatures [8].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

“…Numerous studies have described the non-linear and delayed relationship between mortality and ambient temperature worldwide [6][7][8][9]. Typically, the relation is U-,V-or J-shaped, where the risk of death may increase at both very low and very high temperatures [10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors found a positive correlation between maximum daily temperature and non-trauma attendance. Studies from Australia, China, Singapore and Brazil have associated daily patient attendances with factors such as public holidays, precipitation, temperature, air pollution and relative humidity [8,[14][15][16][17]. In the United Kingdom (UK), only a few studies have examined the effect of temperature on overall and multi-cause attendance rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis

Hotz

Hajat

2020

IJERPH

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The epidemiological research relating mortality and hospital admissions to ambient temperature is well established. However, less is known about the effect temperature has on Accident and Emergency (A&E) department attendances. Time-series regression analyses were conducted to investigate the effect of temperature for a range of cause- and age-specific attendances in Greater London (LD) between 2007 to 2012. A seasonally adjusted Poisson regression model was used to estimate the percent change in daily attendances per 1 °C increase in temperature. The risk of overall attendance increased by 1.0% (95% CI 0.8, 1.4) for all ages and 1.4% (1.2, 1.5) among 0- to 15-year-olds. A smaller but significant increase in risk was found for cardiac, respiratory, cerebrovascular and psychiatric presentations. Importantly, for fracture-related attendances, the risk rose by 1.1% (0.7, 1.5) per 1 °C increase in temperature above the identified temperature threshold of 16 °C, with the highest increase of 2.1% (1.5, 3.0) seen among 0- to 15-year-olds. There is a positive association between increasing temperatures and A&E department attendance, with the risk appearing highest in children and the most deprived areas. A&E departments are vulnerable to increased demand during hot weather and therefore need to be adequately prepared to address associated health risks posed by climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis

Hotz

Hajat

2020

IJERPH

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“…We obtained location-specific daily temperature series for future period under all the four GCMs for each of the four climate change scenarios, i.e. for RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 by extracting the temperature projections from the corresponding grid cell covering the centroid of the location-a method similar to previous studies [21,33]. The centroid represents the spatial centre point of the location.…”

Section: Temperature Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Rai

Breitner

Wolf

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background. Recent studies on temperature-related mortality burden generally found higher coldrelated deaths than heat-related deaths. In the future, it is anticipated that global warming will, on one hand result in larger heat-related mortality but on the other hand lead to less cold-related mortality. Thus, it remains unclear whether the net change in temperature-related mortality burden will increase in the future under climate change.Objectives. We aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and the total temperature-related (net change) mortality burden taking into account the future demographic changes across five districts in Bavaria, Germany by the end of the 21st century.Methods. We applied location-specific age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs) to project the net change in temperature-related mortality burden during the future period 2083-2099 as compared to the baseline period 1990-2006. The projections were under different combinations of five climate change scenarios (assuming a constant climate, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and six population projection scenarios (assuming a constant population, Shared Socio-economic Pathway [SSP] 1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5). Our projections were under the assumption of a constant vulnerability of the future population. We furthered compared the results with projections using location-specific overall all-age ERFs, i.e. not considering the age-effect and population aging.Results. The net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to increase significantly under all scenarios of climate and population change with the highest total increments under SSP5-RCP8.5 by 19.61% (95% empirical CI (eCI): 11.78, 30.91). Under the same scenario for age 75, the increment was by 30.46% (95% eCI: 18.60, 47.74) and for age <75, the increment was by 0.28% (95% eCI: −2.84, 3.24). Considering the combination SSP2-RCP2.6, the middle-of-the road population and the lowest climate change scenario, the net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to still increase by 9.33% (95% eCI: 5.94, 12.76). Contrastingly, the mortality projection without consideration of an age-effect and population aging under the same scenario resulted in a decrease of temperature-related deaths by −0.23% (95% eCI −0.64, 0.14), thus showing an underestimation of temperature-related mortality. Furthermore, the results of climate-only effect showed no considerable changes, whereas, the population-only effect showed a high, up to 17. 35% (95% eCI: 11.46, 22.70), increment in the net temperature-related deaths.Conclusion. The elderly population (age 75), highly vulnerable to both heat and cold, is projected to be about four folds the younger population (age<75) in the future. Thus, the combined effect of global warming and population aging results in an increase in both the heat-and the cold-related deaths. The population-effect dominates the climate-effect. Mitigation and age-specific adapta...

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“…Heat-related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States [3,4]. Morbidity and mortality from heat events is expected to increase as a function of climate change [5,6]. In order to improve the assessment of intra-urban variations in extreme heat risk, we developed and evaluated spatial statistical techniques for down-scaling 12 km meteorological re-analysis daily maximum air temperatures to a 1 km grid using MODIS LST data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downscaling NLDAS-2 daily maximum air temperatures using MODIS land surface temperatures

2020

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We have developed and applied a relatively simple disaggregation scheme that uses spatial patterns of Land Surface Temperature (LST) from MODIS warm-season composites to improve the spatial characterization of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. This down-scaling model produces qualitatively reasonable 1 km daily maximum and minimum air temperature estimates that reflect urban and coastal features. In a 5-city validation, the model was shown to provide improved daily maximum air temperature estimates in the three coastal cities, compared to 12 km NLDAS-2 (North American Land Data Assimilation System). Down-scaled maximum temperature estimates for the other two (non-coastal) cities were marginally worse than the original NLDAS-2 temperatures. For daily minimum temperatures, the scheme produces spatial fields that qualitatively capture geographic features, but quantitative validation shows the down-scaling model performance to be very similar to the original NLDAS-2 minimum temperatures. Thus, we limit the discussion in this paper to daily maximum temperatures. Overall, errors in the down-scaled maximum air temperatures are comparable to errors in down-scaled LST obtained in previous studies. The advantage of this approach is that it produces estimates of daily maximum air temperatures, which is more relevant than LST in applications such as public health. The resulting 1 km daily maximum air temperatures have great potential utility for applications such as public health, energy demand, and surface energy balance analyses. The method may not perform as well in conditions of strong temperature advection. Application of the model also may be problematic in areas having extreme changes in elevation. OPEN ACCESSCitation: Crosson WL, Al-Hamdan MZ, Insaf TZ (2020) Downscaling NLDAS-2 daily maximum air temperatures using MODIS land surface temperatures. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0227480. https://

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Projected Changes in Temperature-related Morbidity and Mortality in Southern New England

Abstract: We estimated that in the absence of further adaptation, if the current southern New England population were exposed to the higher temperatures projected for future decades, temperature-related emergency department visits would increase but temperature-related deaths would not.

Cited by 17 publications

References 36 publications

The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis

The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Downscaling NLDAS-2 daily maximum air temperatures using MODIS land surface temperatures

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