Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

Yang, Haiguang; Xu, Yinlong; Zhang, Lei; Pan, Jie; Li, Xia

doi:10.3354/cr00860

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The research group predicted future climate data at a horizontal resolution of 50 × 50 km across China in the 21st century, using the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) system, a regional climate modeling system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research [ Jones et al ., ]. The PRECIS data set has been validated for its strong ability to simulate seasonal terrestrial climate variations [ Xu et al ., ; Zhang et al ., ], and has been successfully applied to climate change impact assessments of ecosystem vulnerability [ Wu et al ., ], future crop production [ Xiong et al ., ], and heat waves [ Yang et al ., ]. For this assessment of evapotranspiration changes on the Tibetan Plateau, medium‐high A2 and medium‐low B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were used to give a range of different possible scenarios [ Nakicenovic et al ., ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

Yin

Zhao

2013

JGR Atmospheres

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[1] Observed evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, patterns and trends of evapotranspiration and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are complex and poorly understood. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture (defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) to reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o )) based on the modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981-2010 and future climate projections were generated by a regional climate model through the 21 st century. The results show regional trends towards decreasing ET o and statistically significant increases in ET a (p < 0.05) and effective moisture during the period 1981-2010 (p < 0.001). A transition from significant negative to positive ET o occurred in 1997. Additionally, a pronounced increase in effective moisture occurred during the period 1981-1997 because of significant decreased ET o before 1997. In the future, regional ET o and ET a are projected to increase, thus reducing drought stress, because of generally increased effective moisture. Future regional differences are most pronounced in terms of effective moisture, which shows notable increases in the northwestern plateau and decreases in the southeastern plateau. Moreover, the reduced magnitude of effective moisture is likely to intensify in the long term, due mainly to increased evaporative demand.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

Yin

Zhao

2013

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Compared with GCMs, RCMs provide added value when reproducing temperature and precipitation extremes (Lee and Hong 2014). RCMs capture the observed properties of cold air outbreaks (Ma et al 2012) and heatwaves (Koffi and Koffi 2008;Yang et al 2010) with qualitative and quantitative fidelity. Gao et al (2002) validated and projected extreme climate events over East Asia using RegCM2.…”

Section: Sdiimentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations

Chen¹,

Zhang

Gou

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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Based on bias-corrected future projections from the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios over China, extreme climatic events at the middle and end of the twenty-first century are investigated in this paper. The model performance of PRECIS is validated using comparisons with observations and HadGEM2-ES projections, and the bias correction adds fidelity to the projections of basic climate variables and extreme climate events. In the future, our single-realisation estimates show that the number of frost days is projected to decrease and days with tropical nights are projected to increase. Including northeast China, Sichuan Basin, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and south China, the number of consecutive dry days will increase from our single-realisation estimates, which will exhibit a spatial distribution almost similar to that of consecutive wet days in the coming decades. Although precipitation indices associated with duration will increase, a simple precipitation index depicting the intensity of extreme events will decrease over east and south China in the future from our single-realisation projections. Daily rainfall above 50 mm, which is usually regarded as a rainstorm event, is predicted to increase under the RCP4.5 scenario over most of China from our single-realisation estimates; while the same change pattern will occur in southernmost China, similarly spatially distributed for the RCP8.5 scenario, the number of rainstorm will first increase in the middle of the twenty-first century and then slow at the end of the twenty-first century in the Yangtze River region. In conclusion, our single-realisation estimates indicate that the persistence of extreme precipitation will increase with time, but the change of extreme precipitation intensity is not significant in the future. The comparison of climatic extreme events under the RCP4.5 scenario with those under the RCP8.5 scenario shows that extreme climate events will be enhanced under the higher emissions scenario; hence, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will help alleviate climate change effects in the future.

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“…The NEX-GDDP project provides downscaled global climate simulation results from CMIP5 with the spatial resolution of 0.25 • (~25 km × 25 km) [28], including 21 GCM models and two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as RCP (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) by using a statistical downscaling algorithm. The downscaled method used in the NEX-GDDP dataset is the Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method, which was developed by Wood et al [29] and has been widely used in climate change simulation [30,31].…”

Section: Cmip5 Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the BCSD, the reference global data is from Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (GMFD) for Land Surface Modeling, which was produced by the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group at Princeton University [32]. More details about NEX-GDDP could be found in Thrasher et al [28].…”

Section: Cmip5 Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Heatwaves exert negative socio-economic impacts and particularly have serious effects on public health. Based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) results of 10 downscaled high-resolution Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA-GDDP), the intensity (largest lasting time), frequency and total duration of heatwaves over China as well as population exposure in the 21st century and at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels are investigated by using the three indices, the Heat Wave Duration Index (HWDI), annual total frequency of heatwaves (N_HW) and annual total days of heatwaves (T_HW) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MME results illustrate that heatwaves are projected to become more frequent (0.40/decade and 1.26/decade for N_HW), longer-lasting (3.78 days/decade and 14.59 days/decade for T_HW) as well as more extreme (1.07 days/decade and 2.90 days/decade for HWDI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) over China. High latitude and high altitude regions, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, are projected to experience a larger increase of intensity, frequency and the total time of heatwaves compared with southern China (except Central China). The total population affected by heatwaves is projected to increase significantly and will reach 1.18 billion in later part of the 21st century, and there will be more and more people expected to suffer long heatwave time (T_HW) in the 21st century. Compared with a 2.0 °C global warming climate, holding the global warming below 1.5 °C can avoid 26.9% and 29.1% of the increase of HWDI, 34.7% and 39.64% for N_TW and 35.3%–40.10% of T_HW under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The half-degree less of warming will not only decrease the population exposure by 53–83 million but also avoid the threat caused by longer heatwave exposure under the two scenarios. Based on the comprehensive assessment of heatwave under the two RCP scenarios, this work would help to enhance the understanding of climate change and consequent risk in China and thus could provide useful information for making climate adaptation policies.

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Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

Cited by 16 publications

References 35 publications

Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations

Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

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