Progressive Intensification of Uncontrolled Plant-Disease Outbreaks

Fracker, S. B.

doi:10.1093/jee/29.5.923

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…WPBR incidence was generally greater in plots in northern locations where, presumably, the limber pine have been exposed to the pathogen for longer periods of time as it continues to spread south and east from its introduction in British Columbia. Several authors have reported the intensification of WPBR over time (Lachmund 1934, Fracker 1936Van Arsdel et al 1998;Conklin 2004). To our knowledge this was the first report of WPBR in the Northern and Southern Medicine Bow Mountains study areas, and the disease has only been detected in northern Colorado since 1998.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The distribution and incidence of white pine blister rust in central and southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado

Kearns

Jacobi

2007

Can. J. For. Res.

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A survey of limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) to determine the geographic distribution, incidence, and severity of white pine blister rust (WPBR) throughout 13 study areas in central and southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado was conducted from 2002 to 2004. The majority (81.1%) of the 18 719 surveyed limber pines >1.37 m tall were classified as healthy, 13.5% were declining or dying from various causes, and 5.4% were dead. WPBR was present on 278 (55%) of the 504 survey plots. Incidence of the disease ranged from 0% to 100% and averaged 15.5% over all the plots and 28.0% on the infested plots. Likelihood of infection by WPBR was significantly greater for limber pines in larger diameter classes. Incidence was negatively correlated with elevation and positively correlated with geographic position, with more northerly and easterly plots having higher incidences of WPBR. Incidence varied by slope position and did not vary by aspect, slope configuration, or degree of canopy closure. The current level of infestation in central and southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado has been attained within the past two to four decades. With time, the pathogen may spread to currently uninfested white pine populations and intensify throughout its current distribution impacting valuable ecosystems.Résumé : Un inventaire du pin flexible (Pinus flexilis James) a été réalisé de 2002 à 2004 dans 13 zones d'étude situées dans le centre et le sud-est du Wyoming et le nord du Colorado pour déterminer la répartition géographique, l'incidence et la sévérité de la rouille vésiculeuse du pin blanc (RVPB). La majorité (81,1 %) des 18 719 pins flexibles échantillonnés de plus de 1,37 m de haut ont été classés comme sains, 13,5 % dépérissaient ou étaient mourants sous l'effet de diverses causes et 5,4 % étaient morts. La RVPB était présente dans 278 (55 %) des 504 places-échantillons. L'incidence de la maladie variait de 0 % à 100 % et atteignait en moyenne 15,5 % dans l'ensemble des places-échantillons et 28,0 % dans les places-échantillons infectées. Les risques d'infection par la RVPB étaient significativement plus élevés pour les pins flexibles dans les classes de diamètre supérieures. L'incidence était négativement corrélée avec l'altitude et positivement corrélée avec la position géographique : les places-échantillons les plus au nord et les plus à l'est avaient les plus fortes incidences de RVPB. L'incidence variait selon la position de la pente mais non selon l'exposition, la configuration de la pente ou le degré de fermeture du couvert. Le niveau actuel d'infection dans le centre et le sud-est du Wyoming et le nord du Colorado a été atteint au cours des deux à quatre dernières décennies. Avec le temps, le pathogène pourrait progresser vers les populations de pin blanc non infectées et l'infection pourrait s'intensifier partout où la maladie est actuellement présente et affecter des écosystèmes de grande valeur.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The distribution and incidence of white pine blister rust in central and southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado

Kearns

Jacobi

2007

Can. J. For. Res.

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“…The incidence of WPBR changes over time with regeneration, infection, recovery and mortality of host trees (Lachmund 1934;Fracker 1936). Although incidence increased with years infested, its rate of change as intensification deceased.…”

Section: Intensificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of white pine blister rust to limber pine in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

et al. 2013

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Cronartium ribicola, the introduced pathogen that causes white pine blister rust (WPBR), continues to spread to additional limber pine populations in the Southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Because WPBR can severely impact ecosystems, forecasts of its potential distribution and incidence would be useful to land managers. Site and climate data from long infested study areas in Wyoming were fit with two regression models [logistic and classification and regression trees (CART)] to determine the environmental conditions associated with the distribution of WPBR. These models were then used to map limber pine stands at risk of infestation by C. ribicola throughout Wyoming (where it has long occurred) and Colorado (where it is just becoming established). Although variables representing vegetation and landform could identify infested plots, 1-km-scale climate variables for monthly temperature and moisture were better predictors of current WPBR distribution and were available for mapping expected future distribution across the region. Of 280 485 ha where limber pine was projected to occur in Colorado, 41% was forecast by the logistic model to be at risk of infestation, and 53%, by the CART model. Of an estimated 782 229 ha in Wyoming with limber pine, the logistic model projected 61% to be at risk; CART projected 79%. Additional regression models were fit with site and climate data to predict WPBR incidence (per cent of trees infected) and intensification (incidence/age of the oldest canker). Nearly one half of the plot-to-plot variation in incidence was explained using environmental variables readily available to land managers. Although mean plot incidence increased over time, mean intensification decreased 50% per decade. This work provides managers with several tools to reduce uncertainty over the expected distribution and incidence of WPBR, but surveillance and monitoring remain prudent activities for supplementing forecasts of WPBR epidemics.

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“…Sampling for Ribes density presents several challenges, because populations change over time and present different statistical distributions (F racker and B rischle 1944). Populations with a random distribution are easier to describe (e.g., R. rotundifolium in New York; F racker 1936) than populations with a clustered distribution (e.g., R. rotundifolium in Pennsylvania or riparian species). Where a significant portion of the pine infection results from long‐distance dispersal, Ribes abundance within a stand may be uncorrelated to hazard (V an A rsdel et al.…”

Section: Implications For Management Of White Pine Blister Rustmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biology and pathology of Ribes and their implications for management of white pine blister rust

Zambino¹

2010

Forest Pathology

101

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Summary Ribes (currants and gooseberries) are telial hosts for the introduced and invasive white pine blister rust fungus, Cronartium ribicola. Knowledge of wild and introduced Ribes helps us understand the epidemiology of blister rust on its aecial hosts, white pines, and develop disease control and management strategies. Ribes differ by species in their contribution to initial establishment and subsequent intensification of blister rust. Their significance to pine infection depends on their inherent capacities to become infected and support spore production, their abundance and environmental interactions. Ribes and white pines are adapted to disturbance and frequently co‐occur in forest and woodland ecosystems. Differences in light and moisture requirements affect how long various species of Ribes occupy a site. Natural or artificial selection increases rust resistance in white pines, Ribes, and other host genera; but selection also affects virulence and aggressiveness of C. ribicola. Blister rust pathosystems evolve. Local pathosystems wherein the rust and its hosts coexist with reduced damage could arise by several processes.

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Progressive Intensification of Uncontrolled Plant-Disease Outbreaks

Cited by 19 publications

References 0 publications

The distribution and incidence of white pine blister rust in central and southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado

The distribution and incidence of white pine blister rust in central and southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado

Risk of white pine blister rust to limber pine in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

Biology and pathology of Ribes and their implications for management of white pine blister rust

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