Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination — Worldwide, 2000–2018

Patel, Minal; Dumolard, Laure; Nedelec, Yoann; Sodha, Samir V.; Steulet, Claudia; Gacic-Dobo, Marta; Kretsinger, Katrina; McFarland, Jeffrey; Rota, Paul A.; Goodson, James L.

doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6848a1

Cited by 154 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(4 reference statements)

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“…Measles morbidity and mortality have been reduced since the implementation of enhanced vaccination strategies [27], and in several countries the interruption of indigenous transmission of measles disease has been reported [28]. Unfortunately, the measles disease continues to be difficult to eradicate, especially in European countries where recurrent outbreaks have been described [29].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroprevalence to Measles Virus after Vaccination or Natural Infection in an Adult Population, in Italy

et al. 2020

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An increase in measles cases worldwide, with outbreaks, has been registered in the last few years, despite the availability of a safe and highly efficacious vaccine. In addition to an inadequate vaccination coverage, even in high-income European countries studies proved that some vaccinated people were also found seronegative years after vaccination, thus increasing the number of people susceptible to measles infection. In this study, we evaluated the immunization status and the seroprevalence of measles antibodies among 1092 healthy adults, either vaccinated or naturally infected, in order to investigate the persistence of anti-measles IgG. Among subjects who received two doses of measles vaccine, the neutralizing antibody titer tended to decline over time. In addition, data collected from a neutralization assay performed on 110 healthy vaccinated subjects suggested an inverse correlation between neutralizing antibody titers and the time elapsed between the two vaccinations, with a significant decline in the neutralizing titer when the interval between the two doses was ≥11 years. On the basis of these results, monitoring the serological status of the population 10-12 years after vaccination could be important both to limit the number of people who are potentially susceptible to measles, despite the high efficacy of MMR vaccine, and to recommend a booster vaccine for the seronegatives.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroprevalence to Measles Virus after Vaccination or Natural Infection in an Adult Population, in Italy

et al. 2020

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“…Of these 29 confirmed cases, 27 were genotyped. The genotypes detected were B3 (n=7) and D8 (n=20), both of which circulated globally in 2018 (4). Figure 1 shows the distribution of measles cases by epidemiologic week of rash onset, outbreak number, genotype and reporting province or territory.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, measles continues to be an important public health issue globally. In 2018, there were about 9.8 million measles cases and over 140,000 measles-related deaths worldwide (4).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measles surveillance in Canada: 2018

Coulby

Domingo

Hiebert

et al. 2020

CCDR

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Background: Measles has been eliminated in Canada since 1998. Every year, the Public Health Agency of Canada presents epidemiologic evidence to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to verify that measles continues to be eliminated in Canada. The objectives of this article are to: provide an epidemiologic summary of measles activity reported in 2018 in Canada, and provide documented evidence to support the continued verification of measles elimination status in Canada. Methods: Measles surveillance data were captured by the Canadian Measles and Rubella Surveillance System (CMRSS) and descriptive analyses of demographics and risk factors were performed. Outbreak characteristics were summarized and genotypic analyses conducted. Surveillance data for 2018 were evaluated against PAHO's essential criteria for measles elimination status. Results: In 2018, 29 measles cases were reported across five provinces in Canada, an incidence rate of 0.8 cases per 1,000,000 population. Of these 29 cases, 16 were imported and five resulted in further transmission within Canada. The age-specific incidence rate was highest among those aged younger than one year (10.2 cases per 1,000,000 population, n=4). Only nine cases were considered up-to-date for measles vaccination, and 11 cases were hospitalized. Genotype information was available for most of the measles cases (n=27); they were all found to be genotypes that circulated globally in 2018. Canada met or partially met three out of four of PAHO's criteria for verification of measles elimination. Conclusion: Although importations and areas of low vaccination coverage continue to challenge Canada's elimination status, there is no evidence that endemic transmission of the measles virus has been re-established. Canada maintains its measles elimination status.

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“…However, the United Nations (UN) has warned countries about the increase in the amount of measles reports worldwide by 48.4 percent in 2019 which is also growing steadily due to inadequate monitoring of the vaccinations, development in anti-vaccination campaigns, economic and political issues surrounding health-care programs [4,6]. Compared to 2016, the frequency of measles increased by 167 percent in 2018, where America and Africa had the most and least rate respectively [7]. The estimated annual measles occurrence rate in Iran was small, however in 2016, following a rise in the frequency of positive measles reports in 2015, the incidence rate of measles experienced a signi cant decreased in the next year [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Measles Incidence Rates Using Machine Learning and Time Series Methods in the Center of Iran; 1997-2020

Nazari¹,

Fathi²,

Sharahi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Measles is a feverish condition labeled among the most infectious viral illnesses in the globe. Despite the presence of a secure, accessible, affordable and efficient vaccine, measles continues to be a worldwide concern. Methods: This study uses machine learning and time series methods to assess factors that placed people at a higher risk of measles. This historical cohort study contained the Measles incidence in Markazi Province, the center of Iran, from April 1997 to February 2020. Logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, random forest, artificial neural network, bagging, support vector machine, and naïve Bayes were used to make the classification. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression for time series was utilized to assess development of measles over time. Results: The prevalence of measles was 14.5% over the recent 24 years and a constant trend of almost zero cases was observed from 2002 to 2020. The order of independent variable importance were recent years, age, vaccination, rhinorrhea, male sex, contact with measles patients, cough, conjunctivitis, ethnic, and fever. Younger age, less probability of contact and no fever is associated with less odds of zero cases. Only 7 new cases were forecasted for the next two years. Bagging and random forest were the most accurate classification methods. Conclusion: Even if the numbers of new cases are almost zero during the recent years, it has been showed that age and contact are responsible for non-occurrence of measles. October and May are prone to have new cases for 2021 and 2022.

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Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination — Worldwide, 2000–2018

Cited by 154 publications

References 4 publications

Seroprevalence to Measles Virus after Vaccination or Natural Infection in an Adult Population, in Italy

Seroprevalence to Measles Virus after Vaccination or Natural Infection in an Adult Population, in Italy

Measles surveillance in Canada: 2018

Evaluating Measles Incidence Rates Using Machine Learning and Time Series Methods in the Center of Iran; 1997-2020

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