Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

A brief review of the study during COST Action ES0803 of effects due to cosmic rays (CR) and solar energetic particles (SEP) in the ionosphere and atmosphere is presented. Models CORIMIA (COsmic Ray Ionization Model for Ionosphere and Atmosphere) and application of CORSIKA (COsmic Ray SImulations for KAscade) code are considered. They are capable to compute the cosmic ray ionization profiles at a given location, time, solar and geomagnetic activity. Intercomparison of the models, as well as comparison with direct measurements of the atmospheric ionization, validates their applicability for the entire atmosphere and for the different levels of the solar activity. The effects of CR and SEP can be very strong locally in the polar cap regions, affecting the physical-chemical and electrical properties of the ionosphere and atmosphere. Contributions here were also made by the anomalous CR, whose ionization is significant at high geomagnetic latitudes (above 65°-70°). Several recent achievements and application of CR ionization models are briefly presented. This work is the output from the SG 1.1 of the COST ES0803 action (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) and the emphasis is given on the progress achieved by European scientists involved in this collaboration.

Section: Cr Influence On Atmospheric Electric Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of cosmic rays and solar energetic particles on the Earth’s ionosphere and atmosphere

Velinov

Asenovski

Kudela

et al. 2013

“…The assessment and validation of selected models led to stimulating the improvement of existing models to enable their implementation in an operational environment. The outcome of this activity was summarized 12 to include both the introduction of new models and the improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of Space Weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, the following aspects have been considered: input data, output parameters, products or services, operational status of the model, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to provide a solid basis for future developments.…”

Section: -17 March 2011)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing Space Weather products and services in Europe – Preface to the Special Issue on COST Action ES0803

Belehaki

Messerotti

Candidi

2014

Self Cite

COST Action ES0803 ''Developing Space Weather products and services in Europe'' primarily aimed at forming an interdisciplinary network among European scientists dealing with different issues relevant to Geospace as well as warning system developers and operators in order to assess existing Space Weather products and recommend new ones. The work that has been implemented from 2008 to 2012 resulted in advances in modeling and predicting Space Weather, in recommendations for the validation of Space Weather models, in proposals for new Space Weather products and services, and in dissemination, training, and outreach activities. This preface summarizes the most important achievements of this European activity that are detailed in this special issue by the key scientists who participated in COST Action ES0803.

“…Significant progress within operational environments has been achieved mainly through empirical approaches (e.g., Tsagouri et al, 2013). In Europe, TEC forecasting products and services are made available by the Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC) of German Aerospace Center (DLR, http://impc.dlr.de/), which is the successor of the Space Weather Application Center À Ionosphere (SWACI) service.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new short-term forecasting model for the total electron content storm time disturbances

Tsagouri

Koutroumbas

Elias

2018

Self Cite

-This paper aims to introduce a new model for the short-term forecast of the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC). The basic idea of the proposed model lies on the concept of the Solar Wind driven autoregressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF). In its original version, the model is operationally implemented in the DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) and provides alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric disturbances, as well as single site and regional forecasts of the foF2 critical frequency over Europe up to 24 h in advance. The forecasts are driven by the real time assessment of the solar wind conditions at ACE location. The comparative analysis of the variations in foF2 and vTEC during eleven geomagnetic storm events that occurred in the present solar cycle 24 reveals similarities but also differences in the storm-time response of the two characteristics with respect to the local time and the latitude of the observation point. Since the aforementioned dependences drive the storm-time forecasts of the SWIF model, the results obtained here support the upgrade of the SWIF's modeling technique in forecasting the storm-time vTEC variation from its onset to full development and recovery. According to the proposed approach, the vTEC storm-time response can be forecasted from 1 to 12-13 h before its onset, depending on the local time of the observation point at storm onset at L1. Preliminary results on the assessment of the performance of the proposed model and further considerations on its potential implementation in operational mode are also discussed.