Progress and Challenges of Demand-Led Co-Produced Sub-Seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Climate Forecasts in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products.We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users' trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria.

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

“…Such an approach shifts the user, in this context the conservation practitioner, from a recipient of forecast information to a participant in the knowledge and service generation process (Vincent et al, 2020), for instance, drawing on conservation practitioners' understanding of species' ecology to define relevant forecast thresholds and early actions, thereby increasing the likelihood that bespoke forecast information is ‘useful, usable and used’ (Boaz & Hayden, 2002; Hirons et al, 2021). For example, this could involve user‐directed iterations to the visualisation, communication or content of forecasts (Gudoshava et al, 2022; Hirons et al, 2023; Lawal et al, 2021) or applying user‐defined thresholds for specific decision‐making applications (Dione et al, 2022). However, it is also increasingly clear that the iterative co‐production process itself is extremely resource intensive (Hirons et al, 2021) and to be effective, stakeholder engagement, monitoring and evaluation need to be institutionalised as the operational norm (Visman et al, 2022).…”

The sensitivity of the West African monsoon circulation to intraseasonal soil moisture feedbacks

“…Finally, through better understanding intraseasonal soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks during the West African monsoon, we can support efforts to improve subseasonal forecasts of the large‐scale circulation and help reduce the impacts of hydrometerological extreme events. Intraseasonal surface changes can impact crop yields, however regularly adjusting agricultural practices, such as date of sowing, and improving the communication of subseasonal forecasts can minimise losses (Sultan et al ., 2005; Lawal et al ., 2021). The atmospheric response to intraseasonal soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks has been shown to influence characteristics of deep convection.…”