Prognostic and Predictive Values of Meld Score , Platelet Count and Pre Albumin in Patients with Compensated and Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis with Acute Variceal Bleeding

Fattah, Sabry Abdel; El-Hamshary, Naser Kamal; Kilany, Yasser Fouad; Salem, May; Ismael, Sobhy Abdel Hamid; Mostafa, Badr El-Deen Hemeda; El-Dessouky, Yasser M. M.

doi:10.12816/0006330

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 10 publications

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“…In patients with liver cirrhosis, in addition to being used as a monitoring index of liver function, ALB level is also negatively correlated with the degree of esophageal varices; this aspect can be used as a good predictor of esophageal varices bleeding [14]. In the present study, we found that the ALB level in patients with rebleeding was signi cantly lower than that in patients without rebleeding; this nding suggested that ALB was inversely correlated with the risk of rebleeding and could be used as a valuable predictor of AUGIB.…”

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confidence: 99%

Construction of a prediction model for rebleeding in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Zhuang

Xia

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background The incidence of rebleeding in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains despite advances in intervention approaches. Therefore, early prediction of the risk of rebleeding could help to greatly reduce the mortality rate in these patients. We aim to develop and validate a new prediction model to predict the probability of rebleeding in patients with AUGIB. Methods A total of 1,170 AUGIB patients who completed the procedure of emergency gastroscopy within 48 h of admission were included. Logistic regression analyses were performed to construct a new prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve, a line graph, and a calibration and decision curve were used to assess the predictive performance of our new prediction model and compare its performance with that of the AIMS65 scoring system to determine the predictive value of our prediction model. Results A new prediction model was constructed based on Lactic acid (LAC), neutrophil percentage (NEUTP), platelet (PLT), albumin (ALB), and D-DIMER. The AUC values and their 95% confidence interval (CI) for the new prediction model and the AIMS65 score were 0.746 and 0.619, respectively, and 0.697–0.795 and 0.567–0.670, respectively. In the training group, the C index values based on the prediction model and the AIMS65 scoring system were 0.720 and 0.610, respectively. In the validation group, the C index values based on the prediction model and the AIMS65 scoring system were 0.828 and 0.667, respectively. The decision and calibration curve analysis also showed that the prediction model was superior to the AIMS65 scoring system in terms of accuracy of prediction, consistency, and net clinical benefit. Conclusion The prediction model can predict the probability of rebleeding in AUGIB patients after endoscopic hemostasis therapy.

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confidence: 99%

Construction of a prediction model for rebleeding in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Zhuang

Xia

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Prealbumin and D-dimer as Prognostic Indicators for Rebleeding in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

et al. 2020

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Peginterferon is preferable to entecavir for prevention of unfavourable events in patients with HBeAg‐positive chronic hepatitis B: A five‐year observational cohort study

Xiong

et al. 2017

Journal of Viral Hepatitis

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At present, the long-term effects of pegylated interferon-α (PEG-IFN-α) and entecavir (ETV) are controversial. Studies directly compared the long-term outcomes of these two drugs have not been completed. This study was designed to compare the clinical outcomes of PEG-IFN-α vs ETV therapy in Chinese patients with chronic HBV infection. From September 2008 to December 2016, a large, observational, open-label, prospective cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients with CHB who received PEG-IFN-α or ETV therapy was carried out at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. Cumulative incidences of unfavourable events were calculated with respect to treatment type. Based on the REACH-B model, we compared the observed incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with the expected incidence in each group. PEG-IFN-α-treated patients showed a lower cumulative incidences of unfavourable events and cirrhosis than those treated with ETV (P = .031; P = .044, respectively). Impact factor exploration indicated that treatment type and platelet count are significantly associated with the occurrence of unfavourable events. Based on the REACH-B model, a lower observed cumulative incidence of HCC was observed in PEG-IFN-α-treated patients than predicted (P = .038). However, there was no significant difference of the cumulative HCC incidence between the observed and the predicted cases for ETV-experienced patients (P = .36). Treatment with PEG-INF-α leads to a lower incidence of unfavourable events including cirrhosis and HCC than ETV in patients with HBV. Treatment type and baseline platelet count may be two important factors associated with the long-term clinical outcomes of patients with CHB.

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Prognostic and Predictive Values of Meld Score , Platelet Count and Pre Albumin in Patients with Compensated and Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis with Acute Variceal Bleeding

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Construction of a prediction model for rebleeding in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Construction of a prediction model for rebleeding in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Prealbumin and D-dimer as Prognostic Indicators for Rebleeding in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Peginterferon is preferable to entecavir for prevention of unfavourable events in patients with HBeAg‐positive chronic hepatitis B: A five‐year observational cohort study

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