Profiling the WMD Terrorist Threat

Non-State actors’ pursuit of CBRN weapons: From motivation to potential humanitarian consequences

“…18 For example, they may want to establish an independent State for the ethnic, linguistic, cultural or national community with which they are affiliated, or, if they already have their own independent State, to unite all of the members of their community. 19 Indiscriminate acts against an adversary, in particular in areas where the group's supporters are not present, can be rationalized by such a group.…”

“…Right-wing groups seek to restore national greatness (radical nationalists), suppress "dissident" opponents, expel or subordinate ethnic and cultural minorities (racists) or overthrow the existing democratic and "plutocratic" capitalist systems in order to establish a revolutionary "new order" (neo-fascists). 34 Right-wing non-State actors generally dehumanize their enemies and seek to delegitimize the government to justify their attacks. Individuals in this category are a significant threat for lowlevel chemical or biological attacks, but probably do not represent a threat for mass-casualty chemical or biological attacks due to resource limitations.…”

“…Social revolutionary or secular left-wing groups seek to overthrow the capitalist economic and social orders and establish either a "dictatorship of the proletariat" (for example, Marxist-Leninists) or, more rarely, a decentralized, non-hierarchical socio-political system (for example, anarchists). 37 These groups are constrained from indiscriminate acts that cause significant casualties among their own supporters or cause negative reactions in domestic and international audiences, but they can rationalize discriminate acts against government or symbolic capitalist targets. 38 No publicly available, explicit examples of actual attacks perpetrated by this kind of non-State group have been identified.…”

“…39 This psychological aspect is vital to the success of a group. 40 Many of the groups described in the previous sections have been able to conduct attacks that spread fear with conventional weapons. This raises the question of why they would seek to conduct CBRN attacks, which are much more complicated.…”

“…For example, it would be risky for established groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al-Jihad al-Islami to engage in CBRN attacks, in particular against Israel or the United States, since the territories they control could be occupied or destroyed in response. 44 Likewise, for some particular groups, such as Al Qaeda or IS, this would be counterproductive to obtaining their goal of a Muslim caliphate, although recent attacks by these groups have been reported. 45 However, this restraint does not apply to transnational groups that are spread all over the globe and do not depend for their survival on their continued presence in or control over specific territories.…”