Probable evidence for periodicities in global seismic energy release

Liritzis, Ioannis; Tsapanos, Theodoros M.

doi:10.1007/bf00614377

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…It can be observed from the Table 2 that the estimated periods of seismic energy time series of seismogenic zones are in the range of 2.5-3, 4.5-6, 8.5-12, 14-20, 17-22 and 21-32 years. Liritzis and Tsapanos (1993) have also reported the dominant periods of global earthquake energy time series as 3(±0.5), 4.5, 6.5, 8-9, 14-20 and 31-34 years. It can be noted that their periods are almost same as the periods observed in the present study.…”

Section: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decompositionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…5c). The non-stationary nature of the seismic energy time series is confirmed by many authors in the past (Liritzis and Tsapanos 1993 In the EEMD technique, a white noise of finite amplitude is added to the data then EMD technique is used to extract the IMFs. An IMF is a narrow band time series with number of extremas and number of zero crossings differs by at most one.…”

Section: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decompositionmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release

Kavitha

Raghukanth

2015

Acta Geod Geophys

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This article explores a new strategy for forecasting of earthquake energy release in the seismogenic zones of the world. A total of 41 active seismogenic zones are identified with the help of past seismicity data. The magnitudes of individual events occurred in each zone are converted into seismic energy using an empirical relation. The annual earthquake energy time series is constructed by adding the energy releases of all the events in a particular year. The technique of principal component analysis is employed for the regionalization of these seismogenic zones using seismic energy time series. The annual energy time series of seismogenic zones are decomposed into finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) using ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique. The periodicities of the IMFs and their contribution to the total variance of the earthquake energy release are examined. The artificial neural network technique is used for modeling and forecasting the energy-time series of seismogenic zones. The model is verified with an independent subset of data and validated using statistical parameters. The forecast of the annual earthquake energy release in each seismogenic zone is provided for the year 2015.

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Section: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decompositionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decompositionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release

Kavitha

Raghukanth

2015

Acta Geod Geophys

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“…Numerous investigators have drawn attention to quasiperiodic temporal structure in earthquake catalogs and the possibility of event triggering by time-dependent loading processes, from seasonal hydrologic loading (Ader & Avouac, 2013;Bettinelli et al, 2008;Bollinger et al, 2007;Johnson et al, 2017) to changes in Earth's rotation rate (Anderson, 1974;Levin & Sasarova, 2015a, 2015b or solid earth tides (e.g., Bodri & Iizuka, 1989;Cochran et al, 2004;Ide et al, 2016;Métivier et al, 2009). More broadly, quasiperiodic decadal fluctuations in global seismicity have been reported in many studies without a specific physical mechanism (Kanamori, 1977;Liritzis & Tsapanos, 1993;Milne, 1881;Pines & Shaham, 1973;Press & Briggs, 1975;Riguzzi et al, 2010;Shanker et al, 2001). Simulated earthquake catalogs also demonstrate emergent periodicity (Ader et al, 2014;Richards-Dinger & Dieterich, 2012;Sammis & Smith, 2013;Zahn & Shearer, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for Synchronization in the Global Earthquake Catalog

Bendick

Mencin

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Phase alignment (synchronization) is a generalized property of interacting oscillators. If such interactions apply to earthquakes, they should manifest as time‐dependent variations in earthquake productivity organized according to a characteristic elastic loading period. Defining this period as renewal interval, the time required to accumulate the elastic potential energy released in a rupture, gives a consistent scaling property that can be used to search for temporal organization. We test for the expected structure in earthquake productivity using three different statistical tools optimized for different temporal sensitivities: Schuster spectra for events with short renewal intervals (0–25 years), Fourier power spectra for events with short and intermediate renewal intervals (0–100 years), and topological data analysis (TDA) for events with long renewal intervals (>100 years). All three indicate that earthquakes are organized in time according to renewal interval. Accounting for such unsteady temporal organization may improve forecasting skill by providing time‐dependent event probabilities.

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“…Extending the analysis to systems of faults, it is possible that large earthquakes trigger other large earthquakes on nearby structures, leading to synchronization [ Scholz , ], but there is no study evidencing a joint cyclic behavior. On the other hand, far earthquakes, even of intermediate magnitude, can synchronize [ Bath , ; Tsapanos and Liritzis , ; Liritzis et al ., ], possibly with periodic recurrence [ Liritzis and Tsapanos , ], which is explained as the effect of an external forcing. Various authors have studied the possible role played by cycles of solar irradiance, solar/lunar tides, and Earth's rotation rate changes [ Liritzis and Tsapanos , ; Mazzarella and Palumbo , ; Riguzzi et al ., ; Sidorenkov , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, far earthquakes, even of intermediate magnitude, can synchronize [ Bath , ; Tsapanos and Liritzis , ; Liritzis et al ., ], possibly with periodic recurrence [ Liritzis and Tsapanos , ], which is explained as the effect of an external forcing. Various authors have studied the possible role played by cycles of solar irradiance, solar/lunar tides, and Earth's rotation rate changes [ Liritzis and Tsapanos , ; Mazzarella and Palumbo , ; Riguzzi et al ., ; Sidorenkov , ]. The most recent study is that by Scafetta and Mazzarella [], who analyze the spectral coherence between climate oscillations and the worldwide occurrence of M ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1900.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Italian seismicity and Vesuvius' eruptions synchronize on a quasi 60 year oscillation

Bragato

2015

Earth and Space Science

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The analysis of the time distribution of the major earthquakes that occurred in Italy since 1600 reveals that seismicity alternates periods of higher and lower activities over cycles of about 60 years. The same rhythm is present in the eruptive history of the Vesuvius. The large spatial scale of synchronization leads to suppose an external forcing. A hint on its possible origin comes from climatology, where a quasi 60 year cycle is found for various parameters and processes. A hypothesis, also supported by other studies, is that seismicity and volcanism are controlled by cycles of sea level rise. The mechanism could justify similar regularities observed for seismicity in other areas (e.g., cycles of earthquakes in the southern San Andreas Fault, in California) or for strong earthquakes at the global level. The increasing oceanic load of the last century could be coresponsible of the current long-lasting rest of the Vesuvius.

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Probable evidence for periodicities in global seismic energy release

Cited by 10 publications

References 34 publications

Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release

Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release

Evidence for Synchronization in the Global Earthquake Catalog

Italian seismicity and Vesuvius' eruptions synchronize on a quasi 60 year oscillation

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