Abstract. For processing mass high quality products, it is crucial that the machine tool can keep a good running in the manufacturing process. In order that the product percent of pass is up to the standard of production, it needs to predict the reliability of the machine tool as soon as possible, which belongs to the probability distribution unknown. Based on the fuzzy set theory, prediction experiments for the reliability of the machine tool by product performance data can be realized. Prediction experiment of judging the reliability of the machine tool shows that under the confidence level P = 95.44%, if the relative error of the measurement uncertainty of the experimental data is not more than 45%, the machine tool is reliable; otherwise, the machine tool is not reliable. Prediction experiment of evaluating the reliability of the machine tool shows that it can be accurately predicted the reliability of the machine tool according to the fuzzy set theory.