Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and its application to southeast coast of Hainan Island from Manila Trench

Zhang, Xiaoxuan; Niu, Xiaojing

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.103596

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…For linear models S will be an exact solution, because the definition of linearity implies linear combinations of solutions are also solutions, and the calculation is very fast once a unit-source database is constructed (containing solutions U i ). For this reason the unitsource approach is very popular for large-scale probabilistic hazard assessment (e.g., Burbidge et al, 2008;Li et al, 2016;Molinari et al, 2016;Davies et al, 2017;Davies and Griffin, 2020;Zhang and Niu, 2020). Unit-sources also greatly simplify tsunami source-inversion algorithms, including for early-warning applications, because techniques from linear-regression can be combined with tsunami observations to solve for s i (e.g., Tang et al, 2012;Fujii and Satake, 2013;Percival et al, 2014;Romano et al, 2016).…”

Section: S(x T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Unit-sources also greatly simplify tsunami source-inversion algorithms, including for early-warning applications, because techniques from linear-regression can be combined with tsunami observations to solve for s i (e.g., Tang et al, 2012;Fujii and Satake, 2013;Percival et al, 2014;Romano et al, 2016). Unit-source solutions U i are sometimes computed with nonlinear hydrodynamic models (e.g., Yue et al, 2015;Molinari et al, 2016;Zhang and Niu, 2020) in which case Eq. 1 does not produce an exact solution of the original model, but irrespective solutions derived from linear combinations of unitsources are linear (by construction).…”

Section: S(x T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 does not produce an exact solution of the original model, but irrespective solutions derived from linear combinations of unitsources are linear (by construction). In practice this approach works well if nonlinearity is small, which can be tested on a caseby-case basis (e.g., Yue et al, 2015;Molinari et al, 2016;Zhang and Niu, 2020). Linear models cannot simulate inundation and become unreliable if the wave amplitude is a significant fraction of the water depth, but are widely used to force nonlinear coastal inundation models using one-way or two-way nesting (e.g., Tang et al, 2009;Baba et al, 2014;Borrero et al, 2015a).…”

Section: S(x T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global Dissipation Models for Simulating Tsunamis at Far-Field Coasts up to 60 hours Post-Earthquake: Multi-Site Tests in Australia

Davies¹,

Romano²,

Lorito³

2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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At far-field coasts the largest tsunami waves may occur many hours post-arrival, and hazardous waves may persist for more than 1 day. Such tsunamis are often simulated by nesting high-resolution nonlinear shallow water models (covering sites of interest) within low-resolution reduced-physics global-scale models (to efficiently simulate propagation). These global models often ignore friction and are mathematically energy conservative, so in theory the modeled tsunami will persist indefinitely. In contrast, real tsunamis exhibit slow dissipation at the global-scale with an energy e-folding time of approximately 1 day. How strongly do these global-scale approximations affect nearshore tsunamis simulated at farfield coasts? To investigate this we compare modeled and observed tsunamis at sixteen nearshore tide-gauges in Australia, generated by the following earthquakes:

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Section: S(x T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: S(x T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: S(x T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Dissipation Models for Simulating Tsunamis at Far-Field Coasts up to 60 hours Post-Earthquake: Multi-Site Tests in Australia

Davies¹,

Romano²,

Lorito³

2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…Despite the rapid development of OWP around the world [4,5], many problems still exist, especially for safety management [6]. The construction of offshore wind farms faces high safety risks due to the harsh working environment [7,8], long distance transportation [9], and long construction duration [10]. Most traditional safety management methods and systems are land based; therefore, the isolation from the offshore construction sites, which are dozens of kilometers away, causes a great delay in response time, and rectification of safety hazards cannot be timely achieved [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Full participation flat closed-loop safety management method for offshore wind power construction sites

Xiang¹,

Lin²,

An³

et al. 2023

Journal of Intelligent Construction

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This study aims to develop a full participation flat closed-loop (FPFCL) safety management method for offshore wind power (OWP) construction sites. People participation in safety management is improved by giving rewards based on evolutionary game theory. The method avoids management deficiencies due to information loss by reducing redundant management hierarchies and establishing pointto-point communication. The closed-loop mechanism ensures that a safety hazard is timely rectified. Meanwhile, an OWP safety management system (OWPsafety) is developed based on the social media platform (WeChat). The functions of the system include safety hazard report, processing center, and personal center. The software runs on smartphones and allows all stakeholders to participate in safety management, leveraging the advantages of social media in the sharing of knowledge. The benefits of this systematic approach include the elimination of time and space isolation, the interconnection between different construction parties, and the promotion of participation. The proposed method and system were applied to four OWP construction sites. The monthly rectification rate of safety hazards is maintained at more than 91%. Successful on-site tests demonstrated that the method and system can effectively solve the safety management challenges in OWP projects.

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“…A recent work by Kotani et al [14] adopts a similar strategy of approximating the input–output response surface, albeit using nonlinear regression. Zhang & Niu [15] showcase a comparable 1.38 million scenarios, although using linear combination of waves from unit sources. Another recent strategy for reduction of the number of tsunami simulations employs an event tree coupled with cluster filtering of sources [16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation

2021

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In this paper, statistical emulation is shown to be an essential tool for the end-to-end physical and numerical modelling of local tsunami impact, i.e. from the earthquake source to tsunami velocities and heights. In order to surmount the prohibitive computational cost of running a large number of simulations, the emulator, constructed using 300 training simulations from a validated tsunami code, yields 1 million predictions. This constitutes a record for any realistic tsunami code to date, and is a leap in tsunami science since high risk but low probability hazard thresholds can be quantified. For illustrating the efficacy of emulation, we map probabilistic representations of maximum tsunami velocities and heights at around 200 locations about Karachi port. The 1 million predictions comprehensively sweep through a range of possible future tsunamis originating from the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). We rigorously model each step in the tsunami life cycle: first use of the three-dimensional subduction geometry Slab2 in MSZ, most refined fault segmentation in MSZ, first sediment enhancements of seabed deformation (up to 60% locally) and bespoke unstructured meshing algorithm. Owing to the synthesis of emulation and meticulous numerical modelling, we also discover substantial local variations of currents and heights.

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Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and its application to southeast coast of Hainan Island from Manila Trench

Cited by 18 publications

References 20 publications

Global Dissipation Models for Simulating Tsunamis at Far-Field Coasts up to 60 hours Post-Earthquake: Multi-Site Tests in Australia

Global Dissipation Models for Simulating Tsunamis at Far-Field Coasts up to 60 hours Post-Earthquake: Multi-Site Tests in Australia

Full participation flat closed-loop safety management method for offshore wind power construction sites

Probabilistic quantification of tsunami current hazard using statistical emulation

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