Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region

Secanell, Ramon; Bertil, Didier; Martin, Christophe; Goula, Xavier; Susagna, Teresa; Tapia, Mar; Dominique, Pascal; Carbon, David; Fleta, J.

doi:10.1007/s10950-008-9094-2

Cited by 36 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Apart from the authors (Crespo and Martí, 2002;Crespo et al, 2003Crespo et al, , 2007, Secanell et al (2008) also employed it for studying the Pyrenean region, Menon et al (2010) for South India, and Goda et al (2013) for the UK. A question may be posed as to the reliability of this description of the activity rate and its relative merits in comparison with traditional zoned procedures (Stein et al, 2011).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At about the same time, Peláez-Montilla and López-Casado (2002) presented a seismic hazard analysis (SHA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula based on the methodology by Frankel (1995). Since then, several regional studies within the Iberian Peninsula have been carried out: for the south-east of Spain (García-Mayordomo et al, 2007, andGaspar-Escribano et al, 2008), for Andalusia (Benito et al, 2010), for the north of the Iberian Peninsula (Secanell et al, 2008, andGaspar-Escribano et al, 2011), for Portugal (Vilanova andFonseca, 2007, andCampos, 2009), and finally Mezcua et al (2011) have presented PGA (peak ground acceleration) results for the Spanish territory within the Iberian Peninsula.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with kernel functions

Crespo

Martínez

Martí

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg-Richter's relationship). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process.The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg-Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation relationships have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with kernel functions

Crespo

Martínez

Martí

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…We consider two catalogues developed in the frame of the ISARD project (SECANELL et al 2008) in local magnitude, and RISNA project (BENITO et al 2008) in moment magnitude. A new project catalogue was created taking as initial datábase the information compiled in both catalogues.…”

Section: Seismic Project Cataloguementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interreg Project (see, SECANELL et al 2008), aimed at standardizing the seismic hazard across borders, to resolve differences given by the French and Spanish building codes. The second is a local project (BENITO et al 2008) addressing the seismic risk in Navarre province for definition of the emergency plan by Civil Defense.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

Rivas-Medina

Santoyo

Luzón

et al. 2011

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levéis to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estímate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its máximum capacity (T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected valúes SA (7) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects Special issue on Deformation and Gravity Change: Indicators of Isostasy, Tectonics, Volcanism and Climate Change PAGEOPH.should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

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Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

et al. 2016

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Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward‐looking, and updated as new data arrive. In this study, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models; this test bench can be used for model development, model selection, and ensemble model building. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz‐sous‐Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models: Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity (SaSS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). These models incorporate a different mix of physics‐based elements and stochastic representation of the induced sequences. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. Generally, HySei forecasts the seismicity rate better after shut‐in but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SaSS forecasts the spatial distribution better and gives better seismicity rate estimates before shut‐in. The shut‐in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut‐in.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region

Cited by 36 publications

References 15 publications

Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with kernel functions

Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with kernel functions

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

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