Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Incorporating Monte Carlo Method in the Case of Adelaide Region

Abstract

-A topic of seismic hazard analysis (SHA) is briefly elaborated. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is commonly used to assess the ground motion level expected with different likelihood at a rock site during a future seismic event. The Incorporating Monte Carlo method into PSHA in an intraplate region (i.e. Adelaide region) is an interesting topic to explore. The result of the analysis using this method is able to characterize the likelihood of seismicity in a targeted region. Furthermore, the results clearly display the seismic ground motions in term of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in Adelaide region. The de-aggregation of the analysis suggests two expected severe events for the Adelaide City. The first expected event is an earthquake M5.2 from a distance of 15 km and 25 km from the city. The second expected one corresponds to an earthquake M6.6 occurring 85 km away from the Adelaide City. However, the results of this analysis must be treated carefully due to dubious seismic data catalogue for a relatively large seismic event in Adelaide region.

Liquefaction Assessment Using the CPT and Accounting for Soil Ageing

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Studi Bahaya Seismik dengan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis di Sumatera Barat

“…Keunggulan lain dari metode ini adalah mampu mengintegrasikan bahaya dari suatu lokasi terhadap berbagai sumber. Metode PSHA merupakan metode yang memperhitungkan kuantifikasi guncangan tanah yang disebabkan oleh peristiwa gempa bumi, dimana ketidakpastian dalam magnitude, jarak pusat gempa atau episenter, dan waktu terjadinya gempa ikut dipertimbangkan dalam perhitungan (Setiawan, 2017). Nilai PGA dipengaruhi oleh kontribusi setiap sumber gempa, jika jarak lokasi dari sumber gempa bertambah maka nilai PGA akan semakin mengecil (Hadi and Brotopuspito, 2015).…”