Characterizing mode choice behaviors of the evacuees during emergency evacuation using a Logistic regression model

Abstract

The most crucial transportation components in studying individual decision-making behavior are mode choice that used by evacuees. Especially in typical emerging countries which private motorized transport is mostly used in daily activities. Mode choice evacuation behavior is viewed as one of the essential aspects in a transportation disaster planning. This study is aiming to investigate an individual’s preferences for selecting motorized and non-motorized modes for their evacuation during imaginary tsunami evacuation. The Stated Preference (SP) experimental data were collected in Kuta Raja sub-district, one of the most exposed sub-district in Banda Aceh. Binary logistic regression was conducted to evaluate the effects of several factors quantitatively and to identify the dominant factor that affected evacuation mode choice. The empirical result depicts that mode choice used by evacuee during an emergency evacuation is suggestively associated to the socio-demographic attributes such as male gender, age, government employee, low-income household, household member and motorcycle owned. It found that the medium-income households substantially rely on motorcycle mode for their evacuation. The more motorcycle owned within the household, the more likelihood of using motorcycle for their evacuation. The male gender and government employee also has a statistically positive correlation to the explanatory power of motorized transport used to evacuate.

Towards modelling of evacuation behavior and planning for emergency logistics due to the Philippine Taal Volcanic eruption in 2020

“…Social science methodologies in the United States that are well known for this context have been applied in these evacuation studies. Other literature has also focused on tsunami evacuation (Sun and Sun 2020;Sugiarto et al 2019;Makinoshima et al 2017). In the context of a volcanic crisis, previous studies of Jumadi et al (2016,2017,2018) focused on evacuation models and simulations to understand evacuation travel behavior and process.…”

“…The choice of using own vehicle, speci cally a car, can be attributed to demographic characteristics such as gender, age, income. Males are more likely to use a car to evacuate than females (Lindell et al 2011, Makinoshima et al 2017, Wu et al 2013, Sugiarto et al 2019). Also, younger evacuees have a higher likelihood of using a car to evacuate than older evacuees.…”

“…Concerning economic characteristics, low-income households have a statistically negative association with the motorized transport mode. This suggests that low-income households tend to use non-motorized transport as they may not have any owned motorized vehicle such as a motorcycle or car (Sugiarto et al 2019).…”