Probabilistic Risk Evaluation for Overall Stability of Composite Caisson Breakwaters in Korea

Doan, Nhu Son; Huh, Jungwon; Mac, Van Ha; Kim, Dongwook; Kwak, Kyung Hwa

doi:10.3390/jmse8030148

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Furthermore, the statistical characteristics, i.e., the mean and variance of the load, as well as the resistance, are varied during the calibration process. This phenomenon reflects the non-linear behavior of the performance functions represented by the implicit function [27]. The number of failure cases, i.e., the number of points in the failure zone, is 4496 considering the variations; the system PF become 0.0225 (i.e., 4496/200,000).…”

Section: Mcs For the Calibration Processmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…BSM is a widely accepted method based on LEM, in which the slip surface is assumed to be circular, and the safety factor is determined with the equilibrium of moments around the slip center [8,17]. The procedure to combine the MCS and BSM to estimate the safety factor, as well as RIs, was successfully investigated in the previous study [27]. In this study, the same procedure is applied considering the horizontal seismic force in the denominator of Equation 3to estimate the safety factor, FS.…”

Section: Mcs Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The result of P f in the MCS is known to be sensitive to the simulation size; therefore, the number of realizations should be surveyed before conducting a simulation. In general, the size of simulation should be greater than ten times the reciprocal of P f (i.e., N > 10/P f ), so that the coefficient of the variation of P f (COV Pf ), estimated based on the different MCS runs, is less than 0.3 [27]. The relative error, ε, with a 95% confidence interval of the binomial distribution of each simulation cycle is evaluated using Equation (8) [40].…”

Section: Mcs Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, LRFs were calibrated for three levels of target RIs (2.0; 2.5, and 3.0) using the MCS. The fully probabilistic procedure proposed in our previous study [27], which comprises BSM and the MCS, evaluated the probability of failures in the reliability analysis. Based on the fully probabilistic approach, the calibrated LRFs are expected to provide an efficient solution in the design process of new BRWs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Calibration of Load and Resistance Factors for Breakwater Foundations under the Earthquake Loading

et al. 2021

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This study investigates the system stability of breakwater foundations subjected to earthquakes from a probabilistic point of view. A fully probabilistic approach, i.e., a combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and Bishop’s simplified method, has been developed to evaluate the system failure probability of foundation damage, one of the prevailing failures encountered during earthquakes. Twelve sections of perforated caisson breakwaters located around Korea were chosen as case studies. First, the reliability analysis was performed for all the breakwaters at existing conditions; then, the calibration process involving the estimation of load and resistance factors was conducted for 12 breakwaters at three levels of the target reliability index. As the performance function, used in the stability analysis of breakwater foundations, is defined based on an implicit shape with a high-dimensional space of variables, the calibration process of load and resistance factors becomes cumbersome and complicated. Therefore, this study has proposed a sensitivity analysis to be implemented prior to the calibration process to elicit the effects of variables on the stability of each breakwater, which, thereafter, effectively directs the calibration process. The results of this study indicate that the failures in the foundation of breakwaters frequently occur in different modes. Therefore, the failure probability should be estimated considering all possible failure modes of the foundation. The sensitivity results elucidate that the soil strength parameters are the dominant variables, contributing to the stability of foundations, whereas the seismic coefficient presents the negative effect, causing the insecurity of breakwaters. In particular, the deadweights, though directly contributing to the seismic forces, show a small effect on the stability of foundations. The calibration shows that the load factors slightly vary with an increase in the target reliability index and set 1.10 for three safety levels. In contrast, the resistance factor exhibits an inverse relationship with the specified reliability index. Especially when the load factor equals 1.10, the resistance factors are 0.90, 0.85, and 0.80, corresponding to the reliability index of 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0, respectively. Eventually, it is proved that the sensitivity analysis prior to the calibration process makes the procedure more efficient. Accordingly, the iteration of simulation execution is diminished, and the convergence is quickly accomplished.

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Section: Mcs For the Calibration Processmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Mcs Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mcs Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Calibration of Load and Resistance Factors for Breakwater Foundations under the Earthquake Loading

et al. 2021

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“…On the same topic, ref. [2] investigates the conventional deterministic approach for the design of composite caisson breakwaters using reliability approaches (combining reliability methods and Monte Carlo simulations), and compares results for the evaluation of the three most significant failure modes of nine breakwaters in Korea. Shifting the focus to the use of advanced numerical models, ref.…”

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confidence: 99%