Probabilistic Modeling Processes for Oil and Gas

Abstract

Different uncertainties are researched for providing safe and effective development of hydrocarbon deposits and rational operation of oil and gas systems (OGS). The original models and methods, applicable in education and practice for solving problems of system engineering, are proposed. These models allow us to analyze natural and technogenic threats for oil and gas systems on a probabilistic level for a given prognostic time. Transformation and adaptation of models are demonstrated by examples connected with non-destructive testing. The measures of counteraction to threats for the typical manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment on enterprise are analyzed. The risks for pipelines, pumping liquefied natural gas across the South American territory, are predicted. Results of probabilistic modeling of the sea gas and oil-producing systems from their vulnerability point of view (including various scenarios of possible terrorist influences) are analyzed and interpreted.

Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in Artificial Intelligence Systems

“…As the results of selection, the author's models to estimate the probabilistic measures of a quality of used information and the probabilities of "success" and risks of "failure" for "black box" and for complex structures are proposed for AIS. The models are widely tested and approved in practice [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…A probabilistic space (Ω, B, P) for estimation of system operation processes is traditional [15][16][17][18][19][20][21], where Ω is a limited space of elementary events; B is a class of all subspace of Ω-space, satisfied to the properties of σ-algebra; and P is a probability measure on a space of elementary events Ω. Such space (Ω, B, P) is built and proposed for using [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…For the given period T given , the next statements are proposed for use, see in detail [18,19,[35][36][37].…”

“…The modification of this model allows to use different values of diagnostics and recovery time [35][36][37]; for formulas (1)-(3), recovery time is equal to diagnostics time.…”

“…The spectrum of the explored systems by these methods includes systems (not only AIS) operated by government agencies, manufacturing structures (including power generation, coal enterprises, oil and gas systems), food storage, space industry, emergency services, municipal economy, etc. [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. The supporting software tools are original Russian creations registered by Rospatent [38][39][40][41][42][43][44].…”