2015
DOI: 10.1007/s10064-015-0718-9
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Probabilistic modeling of rockfall trajectories: a review

Abstract: Probabilistic approaches are widely adopted for the modeling of rockfall trajectories, but are not widely discussed in the literature. This paper aims to help fill this gap by reviewing probabilistic models of rockfall trajectories, while providing some perspectives for future study. We first make it clear that, from a theoretical point of view, the probabilistic approach is necessitated by both the ontic (inherent) uncertainty associated with rockfalls and the epistemic (information) uncertainty associated wi… Show more

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Cited by 87 publications
(39 citation statements)
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References 53 publications
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“…Some exceptions regarding damage locations as extracted from the field observations compared to modelled locations were detected in profiles 6 and 7, which differences can be attributed to the 2D modelling, as the terrain is highly irregular and the trajectories of falling rocks can be complicated. Here 3D modelling would be more effective and appropriate (Li and Lan 2015).…”
Section: Rock Fall Modellingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Some exceptions regarding damage locations as extracted from the field observations compared to modelled locations were detected in profiles 6 and 7, which differences can be attributed to the 2D modelling, as the terrain is highly irregular and the trajectories of falling rocks can be complicated. Here 3D modelling would be more effective and appropriate (Li and Lan 2015).…”
Section: Rock Fall Modellingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…There are many sources of randomness when performing numerical rockfall analyses, such as the source location, the rock properties, the initial kinematic conditions, the slope properties during impacts, etc. Li and Lan (2015) present an exhaustive review of how existing models deal with uncertainties.…”
Section: -Block Shapementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Considering the blocks unbreakable during their propagation is a common hypothesis in most of the existing propagation models (Li and Lan, 2015). However, fragmentation is a process frequently observed in rockfalls and it is defined as the separation of the initial rock mass into smaller pieces upon impact with the ground (Evans and Hungr, 1993).…”
Section: -Block Shapementioning
confidence: 99%
“…En su publicación, Li and Lan (2015) hacen una revisión de las incertidumbres de los modelos de simulación de trayectorias de bloques y remarcan que, al menos hasta entonces, el único modelo que incluye la fragmentación es el programa HY-STONE. En el modelo de desprendimientos que actualmente desarrolla nuestro grupo se hace hincapié en la importancia de considerar la fractura del bloque que está cayendo.…”
Section: Determinación De Trayectorias De Bloques Rocosos En Ensayos unclassified