Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

Abstract

Abstract. Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100 and 1000 year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows to obtain storm surge level maps that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Statistical estimation of spatial wave extremes for tropical cyclones from small data samples: validation of the STM-E approach using long-term synthetic cyclone data for the Caribbean Sea

“…To assess the cyclone-induced storm surge hazard, Krien et al (2015) set up a modelling chain similar to that described in the introduction: they randomly generate cyclonic events using the approach of Emanuel et al (2006), and compute SWH and total water levels for each event over a wide computational domain (45-65W, 9.5-18.3N) using the ADCIRC-SWAN wave-current coupled numerical model. The interested reader can refer to Krien et al (2015) for more implementation and validation detail.…”

Hazard Assessment of Typhoon-Driven Storm Waves in the Nearshore Waters of Taiwan

“…It has been found to give good performances for hindcasting the hydrodynamics and sea states around islands [7,8]. For the purpose of accurately hindcasting typhoon-driven SWHs, two validation tests were conducted using three kinds of wind fields.…”

“…Based on the type of sea-bottom material, the Manning coefficient n of 0.025 was set in the mode, and therefore C d varies with H according to Equation (7).…”

“…Similar to the storm surge hazard assessment conducted by the authors of [7][8][9] in the Caribbean and Yellow Sea, here, the goal of storm wave hazard assessment is to evaluate and better understand the natural attributes of storm waves (e.g., how high a storm wave is) in the nearshore waters of Taiwan.…”

“…Many studies have focused on an analysis of storm surge hazards [7][8][9], but the potential impact of storm waves has received little attention. Shih et al [23] reproduced waves induced by the highest intensity and lowest intensity typhoons selected from 1977 to 2016, and analyzed the possible wave threats along the coast of Taiwan.…”