No abstract

No abstract

Being one of the most vulnerable regions in the world, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta presents a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 200 million inhabitants. It is often considered as a delta mostly exposed to sea-level rise and exacerbated by land subsidence, even if the local vertical land movement rates remain uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the water-level (WL) changes over 1968 to 2012, using an unprecedented set of 101 water-level gauges across the delta. Over the last 45 y, WL in the delta increased slightly faster (∼3 mm/y), than global mean sea level (∼2 mm/y). However, from 2005 onward, we observe an acceleration in the WL rise in the west of the delta. The interannual WL fluctuations are strongly modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variability, with WL lower than average by 30 to 60 cm during co-occurrent El Niño and positive IOD events and higher-than-average WL, by 16 to 35 cm, during La Niña years. Using satellite altimetry and WL reconstructions, we estimate that the maximum expected rates of delta subsidence during 1993 to 2012 range from 1 to 7 mm/y. By 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta. This study provides a robust regional estimate of contemporary relative WL changes in the delta induced by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise, giving a basis for developing climate mitigation strategies.

[1] Short-and intermediate-wavelength gravity and geoid anomalies are used to provide constraints on the mechanical structure of subduction zones and on the forces involved. This study is based on 2D Cartesian dynamically self-consistent models with Newtonian or power law rheologies. We show that both strong decoupling of the two convergent plates (shear stresses of the order of 10 7 Pa) and weakened bending lithosphere are necessary to reproduce the observed geoid and gravity data. Good fits are found for relatively low failure stresses (%30-50 MPa). For all models providing reasonable predictions of gravity, only a small fraction of the downgoing slab weight is transmitted to the surface plates. About 10% of the energy is dissipated in the contact zone between the two plates, 10% to 20% in the bending region, and more than 70% in the sublithospheric mantle. The basal tractions (on the order of %1À4 Â 10 12 N/m) induce a net motion of the plates, with the subducting lithosphere moving faster than predicted by the no-net-motion principle. A marked positive geoid anomaly is predicted above subduction zones at intermediate wavelength (l = 2000-4000 km) in the case of pure whole mantle convection. Such large geoid highs are not observed. Introducing ''partial layering'' (i.e., mass anomalies hampering mantle flow through the transition zone) is necessary to reconcile model predictions and observations for these wavelengths.

Abstract. Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Abstract. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling complexity impede accurate storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent Supercyclone Amphan in real time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making over the Bengal delta shorelines as well as over other similar cyclone-prone regions.

This study aims to better understand coastal processes associated with extreme cyclonic events through the study of the coastal changes, flooding and damage that resulted from the passage of a category 5 hurricane (Irma) on 6 September 2017 over the islands of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy in the Lesser Antilles. Hurricane Irma was contextualized from tropical cyclone track data and local weather observations collected by Météo-France, as well as high-resolution numerical modelling. Field work involved the study of accretion coasts through qualitative observations, topo-morphological and sedimentary surveys, as well as image acquisition with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) surveys during two trips that were made 2 and 8 months after the catastrophe. Wave propagation and flood numerical models are presented and compared to field data. Our field analysis also reports on the devastating impacts of storm surges and waves, which reached 4 and 10 meters height, respectively, especially along east-facing shores. The approaches reveal a variety of morpho-sedimentary responses over both natural and highly urbanized coasts. The analysis shows the effects of coastal structures and streets on flow channeling, on the amplification of some erosion types, and on water level increase. Positive spatial correlation is found between damage intensity and marine flood depth. The signatures of ocean-induced damage are clear and tend to validate the relevance of the intensity scale used in this study.

No abstract