Probabilistic estimation of reliability values for large-panel buildings based on the results of certification

Abstract

Under the agreement with the city authorities, in 2017-2018, for the first time, a
 full certification of the housing stock of apartment buildings was carried out. 2658 multi-storey
 large-panel buildings of various storeys from 2 to 9 floors were entered into the database. Based on
 the results of certification, quantitative estimates of the probability of failure and reliability for
 large-panel buildings of various types were obtained for the first time. The frequency of
 earthquakes is taken into account according to the current "Map of seismic zoning of the Republic
 of Kazakhstan". The reliability value is obtained for the entire group of large-panel buildings. It
 was revealed that large-panel buildings with the first flexible or brick floor are not earthquakeresistant.
 The results of the reliability and failure estimates are used for practical recommendations
 to reduce the risk and expected losses in possible earthquakes. It is proposed to strengthen largepanel
 buildings with the first flexible or brick floor (33 buildings). The method of strengthening
 should be determined by special studies.