Probabilistic estimation of reliability and failure values for monolithic buildings based on the results of certification

Abstract

In 2017-2018, the total certification of the housing stock of multi-apartment buildings in Almaty was carried out for the first time. According to the results of certification, a total of 8,171 buildings were entered into the database, of which 1,425 are multi-storey monolithic buildings of various storeys and structural types. It was also revealed that 1305 monolithic buildings are earthquake-resistant, 27 – non-earthquake-resistant and 93 are located in the zone of tectonic faults on the territory of the city. Therefore, it is useful to accept the pessimistic hypothesis that buildings located in the zone of tectonic faults will be destroyed. Under these conditions, quantitative estimates of the failure probability and reliability values for monolithic buildings were obtained for the first time. The high earthquake resistance of monolithic buildings has been confirmed. It is established that when taking into account the influence of tectonic faults, the probability of failure of a monolithic building increases by more than 4 times. The frequency of earthquakes is taken into account according to the current "Map of seismic zoning of the Republic of Kazakhstan". Methods of strengthening monolithic buildings should be individual and determined by the results of experimental studies.