Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages

Franzke, Christian; Czupryna, Marcin

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02558-8

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…However, given the short observational record, the complexity of multivariate physical and ecological variability, and the inability to satisfactorily model these complex interactions, mechanistic understanding of ecological correlations with climate indices remains poor. As a result, the PDO and NPGO indices are commonly employed as covariates in correlative studies that fit statistical models to estimate the effects of climate variability for fisheries management (25,27,28), hydrology (29)(30)(31), agriculture (32)(33)(34), and economic planning (35,36). Statistical approaches commonly used in these correlative studies may produce era-dependent errors in inference when confronted with nonstationary relationships of the kind we document here (14,26,37,38).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Litzow

Hunsicker

Bond

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change is likely to change the relationships between commonly used climate indices and underlying patterns of climate variability, but this complexity is rarely considered in studies using climate indices. Here, we show that the physical and ecological conditions mapping onto the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index have changed over multidecadal timescales. These changes apparently began around a 1988/1989 North Pacific climate shift that was marked by abrupt northeast Pacific warming, declining temporal variance in the Aleutian Low (a leading atmospheric driver of the PDO), and increasing correlation between the PDO and NPGO patterns. Sea level pressure and surface temperature patterns associated with each climate index changed after 1988/1989, indicating that identical index values reflect different states of basin-scale climate over time. The PDO and NPGO also show time-dependent skill as indices of regional northeast Pacific ecosystem variability. Since the late 1980s, both indices have become less relevant to physical–ecological variability in regional ecosystems from the Bering Sea to the southern California Current. Users of these climate indices should be aware of nonstationary relationships with underlying climate variability within the historical record, and the potential for further nonstationarity with ongoing climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Litzow

Hunsicker

Bond

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…4 Schematic of continental trends of number of fatalities for different hazard types. 50th denotes the 50th percentile trend, 90th the 90th percentile trend and Mean the Mann-Kendall trend 2001; Gilleland and Katz 2016;Franzke and Czupryna 2019). These plots demonstrate the goodness of fit of the GPD to the data (Fig.…”

Section: Extreme Value Analysismentioning

confidence: 80%

“…We use the GPD (Coles 2001;Beirlant et al 2006) to probabilistically examine the fatality data. We follow the approach by Franzke and Czupryna (2019). The GPD is given by…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We also tested the sensitivity of the non-stationary models to the threshold and found little sensitivity (not shown). Furthermore, we simultaneously fit a Poison point process to model the threshold exceedances (Coles 2001;Gilleland and Katz 2016;Franzke and Czupryna 2019). The use of Poisson-GPD models allows us to compute effective return periods which depend on covariates (Cooley 2013;Rootzén and Katz 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nonlinear relationships would require longer time series in order to get robust results. We then use the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to select the GPD model which fits the data best (Burnham and Anderson 2003;Franzke and Czupryna 2019). The best GPD models with their parameter dependencies and covariates are given in Table S2.…”

Section: Extreme Value Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability

Franzke¹,

Sentelles

2020

Climatic Change

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Weather and climate hazards cause too many fatalities each year. These weather and climate hazards are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Here, we use a disaster database to investigate continentally aggregated fatality data for trends. We also examine whether modes of climate variability affect the propensity of fatalities. Furthermore, we quantify fatality risk by computing effective return periods which depend on modes of climate variability. We find statistically significant increasing trends for heat waves and floods for worldwide aggregated data. Significant trends occur in the number of fatalities in Asia where fatalities due to heat waves and floods are increasing, while storm-related fatalities are decreasing. However, when normalized by population size, the trends are no longer significant. Furthermore, the number of fatalities can be well described probabilistically by an extreme value distribution, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Based on the GPD, we evaluate covariates which affect the number of fatalities aggregated over all hazard types. For this purpose, we evaluate combinations of modes of climate variability and socio-economic indicators as covariates. We find no evidence for a significant direct impact from socio-economic indicators; however, we find significant evidence for the impact from modes of climate variability on the number of fatalities. The important modes of climate variability affecting the number of fatalities are tropical cyclone activity, modes of sea surface temperature and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. This offers the potential of predictability of the number of fatalities given that most of these climate modes are predictable on seasonal to inter-annual time scales.

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Relay cropping as an adaptive strategy to cope with climate change

et al. 2023

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Climate change and its complex interactions with crops and cropping systems present challenges to agricultural production. Resilient systems that provide food security for a burgeoning population, built by improving crops and developing new alternative cropping systems, are needed to cope with the myriad impacts climate change has on agriculture. Relay cropping is a systems strategy to sustainably intensify crop production and provide environmental benefits. Relay cropping involves interseeding one plant species into an established crop, creating a temporary spatial‐temporal overlap of the two crops. This system keeps living plant cover on the agricultural landscape most of the year, which has implications for adapting to and even mitigating climate change impacts. As global warming progresses, land area suitable for relay cropping or producing more than one crop per year will likely expand to more northerly latitudes. The following review specifically focuses on relay cropping, giving examples of how it can potentially improve agricultural system resilience and adaptability to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while also addressing potential limitations. More research is needed to improve crop genetics, crop combinations, and management practices best suited for relay cropping to further develop systems that can adapt to changing weed and insect dynamics as well as improve nitrogen and water use under current and future predictions of climate change.

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Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages

Cited by 22 publications

References 49 publications

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability

Relay cropping as an adaptive strategy to cope with climate change

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