Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool, which defines the ecotone between arctic and subarctic communities, has retreated approximately 230 km northward since the early 1980s. Bottom trawl surveys of fish and invertebrates in the southeastern Bering Sea (1982-2006) show a coincident reorganization in community composition by latitude. Survey catches show community-wide northward distribution shifts, and the area formerly covered by the cold pool has seen increases in total biomass, species richness, and average trophic level as subarctic fauna have colonized newly favorable habitats. Warming climate has immediate management implications, as 57% of variability in commercial snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) catch is explained by winter sea ice extent. Several measures of community distribution and structure show linear relationships with bottom temperature, suggesting warming climate as the primary cause of changing biogeography. However, residual variability in distribution not explained by climate shows a strong temporal trend, suggesting that internal community dynamics also contribute to changing biogeography. Variability among taxa in their response to temperature was not explained by commercial status or life history traits, suggesting that species-specific responses to future warming will be difficult to predict.

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Studies of climate effects on ecology often account for non-stationarity in individual physical and biological variables, but rarely allow for non-stationary relationships among variables. Here, we show that non-stationary relationships among physical and biological variables are central to understanding climate effects on salmon (Onchorynchus spp.) in the Gulf of Alaska during 1965-2012. The relative importance of two leading patterns in North Pacific climate, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), changed around 1988/1989 as reflected by changing correlations with leading axes of sea surface temperature variability. Simultaneously, relationships between the PDO and Gulf of Alaska environmental variables weakened, and long-standing temperature-salmon and PDO-salmon covariance declined to zero. We propose a mechanistic explanation for changing climate-salmon relationships in terms of non-stationary atmosphere-ocean interactions coinciding with changing PDO-NPGO relative importance. We also show that regression models assuming stationary climate-salmon relationships are inappropriate over the multidecadal time scale we consider. Relaxing assumptions of stationary relationships markedly improved modelling of climate effects on salmon catches and productivity. Attempts to understand the implications of changing climate patterns in other ecosystems might also be aided by the application of models that allow associations among environmental and biological variables to change over time.