Proactive Policing and Robbery Rates Across U.S. Cities*

Abstract

In recent years, criminologists, as well as journalists, have devoted considerable attention to the potential deterrent effect of what is sometimes referred to as "proactive" policing. This style of policing entails the vigorous enforcement of laws against relatively minor offenses in order to prevent more serious crime. The current study examines the effect of proactive policing on robbery rates for a sample of large U.S. cities using an innovative measure developed by Sampson and Cohen (1988). We replicate their cross-sectional analyses using data from 2000-2003, a period during which proactive policing is likely to have become more common than the period of the original study-the early 1980s. We also extend their analyses by estimating a more comprehensive regression model that incorporates additional theoretically-relevant predictors. Finally, we advance previous research in this area by using panel data. The crosssectional analyses replicate prior findings of a negative relationship between proactive policing and robbery rates. In addition, our dynamic models suggest that proactive policing is endogenous to changes in robbery rates. When this feedback between robbery and proactive policing is eliminated, we find further evidence that proactive policing reduces robbery rates.

Criminal Deterrence: A Review of the Literature

“…As there is no standardized way to assess the extent to which individual police departments engage in police work that is proactive, in practice, this literature seeks to understand if the intensity of arrests for minor infractions has an effect on the incidence of more serious crimes. Building on a proposition in Wilson and Kelling (1982), such an empirical operationalization was first proposed by Sampson and Cohen (1988) and has been replicated to various degrees by MacDonald (2002) and Kubrin et al (2010). The general strategy is to regress crime rates on a measure of policing intensity.…”

Not by accident: An analytical approach to traffic crash harm reduction

“…In addition, prior policing research illustrates an association between increased traffic-related enforcement and reductions in the following types of criminally harmful events: property crimes (Schnelle et al, 1977); robberies (Kubrin et al, 2010;Sampson & Cohen, 1988;Wilson & Boland, 1978); gun carrying and violent crime (McGarrell, Chermak, Weiss, & Wilson, 2001;Sherman & Rogan, 1995); and, overall criminal and disorderly behavior (Sherman & Weisburd, 1995). Further, traffic crashes cause more deaths and injuries than homicides and assaults.…”

Victimization and spillover effects in Mexico

“…Among the most common covariates used, measures of socio-economic disadvantage have been found to be positively correlated with crime rates (Kubrin et al, 2006;Andresen, 2006). Low opportunity costs for socially and economically disadvantaged individuals have been cited as one of the main drivers of crime.…”

“…In terms of population instability, the literature has found the areas with high migration and low social cohesion tend to have more crime (Miethe et al, 1991). Another important covariate used in the study of crime is the amount and extend of policing activities (Kubrin et al, 2006). The net effect of this covariate on crime is not clear.…”