Prison or Voluntary Cooperation? The Possibility of Withdrawal from the European Union

Abstract

Can a Member State choose to leave the European Union (EU)? Are there provisions in the Treaties that establish a right to withdraw? What would the political and economic implications be? In this article, these questions are addressed. In a first step, the Treaties of the EU and the provisions of international law are consulted in order to clarify if a legal right to withdraw exists. The conclusion is that there is no guaranteed legal right to withdraw in the current situation, but the entering into force of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe would create such a right. However, a formal right to withdraw does not necessarily mean that leaving the EU is a real option, and therefore the political and economic sides of the issue are also examined. From the literature on secession and Europeanization, a number of issues that could arise in a case of withdrawal are identified – namely ‘fear of fragmentation’, ‘lost investment’, ‘costs’ and ‘the effects of Europeanization’. The extent to which these issues were of importance is examined in the only existing case of withdrawal: Greenland. Subsequently, an assessment is made of the extent to which these issues could form obstacles for a Member State that wishes to withdraw in the current situation. The main conclusion is that large economic costs and the constitutional changes that follow from EU membership could rule out withdrawal as a realistic option.

Enlargement and exit: The origins of Article 50

“…Prior to the Convention, the legality of unilateral exit from the EU had been contentious (Athanassiou, 2009; Berglund, 2006; Harbo, 2008; Herbst, 2006; Hofmeister, 2010; Weiler, 1985; Wyrozumska, 2012). Most of the cited authors do not take a strong position themselves.…”

“… 5 Athanassiou (2009: 7) concludes that ‘unilateral withdrawal from the EU would not, as a matter of public international law, be inconceivable, although there can be serious principled objections to it’. According to Berglund (2006: 147), ‘there is no guaranteed legal right to withdraw in the current situation’. Herbst (2006: 383) concludes that ‘currently, there exists no unlimited right of an EU Member State to withdraw from the Union, i.e.…”

A new ‘democratic life’ for the European Union? Administrative lawmaking, democratic legitimacy, and the Lisbon Treaty

“…Members who choose to leave the EU necessarily repeal all of EU laws, popular and unpopular, administrative and otherwise, not merely one choice, offensive implementing act. That means withdrawal would likely be accompanied by high economic and political costs, many of which would be entirely unrelated to the specific act that the withdrawing member abhors (Weiler 1985, Berglund 2006. A Eurozone member that withdraws would suffer especially high costs, as it struggles to create a new currency without panicking financial markets, defaulting on its debt obligations, or otherwise devastating its economy (Eichengreen 2010).…”

‘Should I Stay or Should I Go ?’—A Critical Analysis of the Right to Withdraw from the EU

“…In this scenario, the withdrawing state would in many respects 'remain a member of the EU but without any influence over the decisions made at the European level'. 81 In other words, the withdrawing state would run into 'the problem of regulation without representation'. 82 Whether this is really the intention of the withdrawing state is more than questionable.…”