Primary forest cover loss in Indonesia over 2000–2012

Margono, Belinda Arunarwati; Potapov, Peter; Turubanova, Svetlana; Stolle, Fred; Hansen, Matthew C.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2277

Cited by 851 publications

(739 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Satellite observations of ground fire features and atmospheric pollutant concentrations provided us new insights into fire dynamics and fire-associated carbon losses in the EQAS, where massive land use change due to agriculture and palm plantation are taking place over the carbon-rich peat soils in recent decades [Carlson et al, 2012;Margono et al, 2014]. The strong nonlinear relationship found between fire emissions and cumulative water deficit suggests a high future risk of peat carbon loss due to fire given that future …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

Yin

Ciais

Chevallier

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change‐affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997–2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.51 ± 0.17 Pg carbon—less than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Niño, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2 months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25 Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

Yin

Ciais

Chevallier

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Finally, we compare the effectiveness of place-based policies with alternative price-based instruments for climate-change mitigation within a globally significant landscape. moratorium in 2011 (28,29). However, the effectiveness of the moratorium in reducing emissions from deforestation has yet to be quantified.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reductions in emissions from deforestation from Indonesia’s moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions

Busch

Ferretti-Gallon

Engelmann

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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195

128

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To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation, Indonesia instituted a nationwide moratorium on new license areas (“concessions”) for oil palm plantations, timber plantations, and logging activity on primary forests and peat lands after May 2011. Here we indirectly evaluate the effectiveness of this policy using annual nationwide data on deforestation, concession licenses, and potential agricultural revenue from the decade preceding the moratorium. We estimate that on average granting a concession for oil palm, timber, or logging in Indonesia increased site-level deforestation rates by 17–127%, 44–129%, or 3.1–11.1%, respectively, above what would have occurred otherwise. We further estimate that if Indonesia’s moratorium had been in place from 2000 to 2010, then nationwide emissions from deforestation over that decade would have been 241–615 MtCO2e (2.8–7.2%) lower without leakage, or 213–545 MtCO2e (2.5–6.4%) lower with leakage. As a benchmark, an equivalent reduction in emissions could have been achieved using a carbon price-based instrument at a carbon price of $3.30–7.50/tCO2e (mandatory) or $12.95–19.45/tCO2e (voluntary). For Indonesia to have achieved its target of reducing emissions by 26%, the geographic scope of the moratorium would have had to expand beyond new concessions (15.0% of emissions from deforestation and peat degradation) to also include existing concessions (21.1% of emissions) and address deforestation outside of concessions and protected areas (58.7% of emissions). Place-based policies, such as moratoria, may be best thought of as bridge strategies that can be implemented rapidly while the institutions necessary to enable carbon price-based instruments are developed.

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“…A recent study reported high rates of deforestation in Indonesia over the period -2012(Margono et al 2014. By 2012, annual primary forest loss in Indonesia was estimated to be higher than in Brazil (0.84 and 0.46 Mha, respectively).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected areas’ role in climate-change mitigation

Melillo

Lü

Kicklighter

et al. 2015

Ambio

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Globally, 15.5 million km 2 of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive landuse change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km 2 of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

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Primary forest cover loss in Indonesia over 2000–2012

Cited by 851 publications

References 21 publications

Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

Reductions in emissions from deforestation from Indonesia’s moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions

Protected areas’ role in climate-change mitigation

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