Price volatility in PV-critical material markets: Perspectives for solar firms, consumers, and policy makers

Bustamante, Michele L.; Gaustad, Gabrielle

doi:10.1109/pvsc.2015.7356392

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…While other studies have considered the effect of material prices on clean energy technologies [9][10][11][12], this study is novel in its consideration of multiple technologies under the same methodology and the comparison to cost targets under various price spike scenarios. While varied in their implementation, similar economic modeling that extrapolates from price changes in material input prices to impact on product cost has been utilized in previous studies.…”

Section: Clean Energy Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While varied in their implementation, similar economic modeling that extrapolates from price changes in material input prices to impact on product cost has been utilized in previous studies. For example, two studies consider indium and tellurium price changes and their impact on photovoltaic solar panel cost metrics [10][11][12]. A previous study has been conducted on Li-ion batteries by a private organization, and resultant data and findings are not publicly available to inform further research, technology design, or policy making.…”

Section: Clean Energy Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effect of critical material prices on the competitiveness of clean energy technologies

Leader

Gaustad

Babbitt

2019

Mater Renew Sustain Energy

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Clean energy technologies are widely recognized as a part of the solution for a sustainable future. Unfortunately, these technologies often rely on materials that are considered critical because of their importance to the technology and their potential for supply disruptions, which often lead to drastic and unexpected price spikes. With many clean energy technologies still struggling to compete economically with incumbent technologies, it is uncertain if such material price changes could have a significant economic impact on overall clean energy technology costs. In this paper, we first estimate material intensity of critical materials for three case study clean energy technologies: proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in direct drive wind turbines, and Li-ion batteries in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Using these data, as well as material price information, we analyze technologylevel costs under potential material price spike scenarios. By benchmarking against target costs at which each technology is expected to become economically competitive relative to incumbent energy systems, we evaluate the impact of price spikes on marketplace competitiveness. For the three case studies, technological costs could increase by between 13 and 41% if recent historical price events were to recur at current material intensities. By analyzing the economic impact of material price changes on technology-level costs, we demonstrate the need for stakeholders to push for various supply risk reduction measures, which are also summarized in this paper. Keywords Supply risk • Techno-economic analysis • Wind turbines • Li-ion batteries • Fuel cells • Rare earth elements Critical materials in clean energy technologies Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

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Section: Clean Energy Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Clean Energy Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%